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PolyPnL
Leaderboard
Mempool
A live demo site
powered by
PolyEdge Engine
Tier 0
Weighted Vol:
$22.29
dessturmeswucht
dessturmeswuc...
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Created
April 18, 2026
Active
September 7, 2026
Balance
$3.26
Incoming
+$2.91
Rewards
+$0.00
Outgoing
-$0.00
PnL Over Time
Cumulative PnL
+$3.03
1D
3D
7D
30D
All
Aug 13
Aug 21
Aug 28
Sep 5
Sep 12
Top Categories
Last 30 Days
Tech
+$2.91
WR: 100.0%
(2/2)
ROI: +41.4%
Weather
+$2.80
WR: 33.3%
(1/3)
ROI: +39.4%
Finance
+$1.05
WR: 100.0%
(1/1)
ROI: +21.1%
5m
-$3.73
WR: 63.6%
(7/11)
ROI: -18.2%
Crypto
-$3.73
WR: 63.6%
(7/11)
ROI: -18.2%
Trading Style
Last 30 Days
Maker Volume
$9.54
17.2%
Taker Volume
$45.95
82.8%
Taker Ratio
83%
Performance Snapshot
24 Hours
Net PnL
+$0.00
ROI
0.0%
Win Rate
0.0%
Volume
$0.00
Fee
$0.00
0 Wins in 0 Markets
3 Days
Net PnL
+$0.00
ROI
0.0%
Win Rate
0.0%
Volume
$0.00
Fee
$0.00
0 Wins in 0 Markets
7 Days
Net PnL
+$0.00
ROI
0.0%
Win Rate
0.0%
Volume
$8.80
Fee
$0.15
0 Wins in 2 Markets
30 Days
Net PnL
+$3.03
ROI
7.7%
Win Rate
64.7%
Volume
$55.49
Fee
$0.72
11 Wins in 17 Markets
Recent Markets
| total 98
Market
PnL
ROI
Volume
Status
6pt5-earthquake-weekly
Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?
—
—
$4.40
fee: $0.03
Active
5d ago
6pt5-earthquake-weekly
Active
Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?
Active 5d ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$4.40
fee: $0.03
6pt5-earthquake-weekly
Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?
—
—
$4.40
fee: $0.12
Active
5d ago
6pt5-earthquake-weekly
Active
Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?
Active 5d ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$4.40
fee: $0.12
shanghai-daily-weather
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on September 2?
+$2.80
+39.4%
$7.10
fee: $0.10
No
11d ago
shanghai-daily-weather
No
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on September 2?
Settled 10d ago
PnL
+$2.80
ROI
+39.4%
Volume
$7.10
fee: $0.10
mythos-released
Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?
+$2.89
+47.9%
$6.03
fee: $0.08
No
14d ago
mythos-released
No
Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?
Settled 11d ago
PnL
+$2.89
ROI
+47.9%
Volume
$6.03
fee: $0.08
yearly-ipos
Anthropic IPO before 2027?
+$1.05
+21.1%
$11.04
fee: $0.05
Active
15d ago
yearly-ipos
Active
Anthropic IPO before 2027?
Active 15d ago
PnL
+$1.05
ROI
+21.1%
Volume
$11.04
fee: $0.05
doge-up-or-down-5m
Dogecoin Up or Down - August 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET
-$1.05
-105.0%
$1.00
fee: $0.05
Down
24d ago
doge-up-or-down-5m
Down
Dogecoin Up or Down - August 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET
Settled 24d ago
PnL
-$1.05
ROI
-105.0%
Volume
$1.00
fee: $0.05
doge-up-or-down-5m
Dogecoin Up or Down - August 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET
-$3.50
-100.0%
$3.50
Down
27d ago
doge-up-or-down-5m
Down
Dogecoin Up or Down - August 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET
Settled 27d ago
PnL
-$3.50
ROI
-100.0%
Volume
$3.50
doge-up-or-down-5m
Dogecoin Up or Down - August 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET
-$1.01
-101.3%
$1.00
fee: $0.01
Up
27d ago
doge-up-or-down-5m
Up
Dogecoin Up or Down - August 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET
Settled 27d ago
PnL
-$1.01
ROI
-101.3%
Volume
$1.00
fee: $0.01
doge-up-or-down-5m
Dogecoin Up or Down - August 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET
+$0.09
+2.9%
$3.00
fee: $0.01
Down
27d ago
doge-up-or-down-5m
Down
Dogecoin Up or Down - August 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET
Settled 27d ago
PnL
+$0.09
ROI
+2.9%
Volume
$3.00
fee: $0.01
doge-up-or-down-5m
Dogecoin Up or Down - August 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET
+$1.76
+58.6%
$3.00
fee: $0.08
Down
27d ago
doge-up-or-down-5m
Down
Dogecoin Up or Down - August 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET
Settled 27d ago
PnL
+$1.76
ROI
+58.6%
Volume
$3.00
fee: $0.08
doge-up-or-down-5m
Dogecoin Up or Down - August 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET
+$1.07
+53.7%
$2.00
fee: $0.05
Down
27d ago
doge-up-or-down-5m
Down
Dogecoin Up or Down - August 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET
Settled 27d ago
PnL
+$1.07
ROI
+53.7%
Volume
$2.00
fee: $0.05
doge-up-or-down-5m
Dogecoin Up or Down - August 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET
+$0.75
+75.5%
$1.00
fee: $0.03
Up
27d ago
doge-up-or-down-5m
Up
Dogecoin Up or Down - August 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET
Settled 27d ago
PnL
+$0.75
ROI
+75.5%
Volume
$1.00
fee: $0.03
doge-up-or-down-5m
Dogecoin Up or Down - August 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET
+$0.25
+25.1%
$1.00
fee: $0.01
Down
27d ago
doge-up-or-down-5m
Down
Dogecoin Up or Down - August 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET
Settled 27d ago
PnL
+$0.25
ROI
+25.1%
Volume
$1.00
fee: $0.01
doge-up-or-down-5m
Dogecoin Up or Down - August 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET
+$0.89
+88.9%
$1.00
fee: $0.03
Up
27d ago
doge-up-or-down-5m
Up
Dogecoin Up or Down - August 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET
Settled 27d ago
PnL
+$0.89
ROI
+88.9%
Volume
$1.00
fee: $0.03
btc-up-or-down-5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET
+$0.07
+7.0%
$1.00
fee: $0.00
Down
27d ago
btc-up-or-down-5m
Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET
Settled 27d ago
PnL
+$0.07
ROI
+7.0%
Volume
$1.00
fee: $0.00
best-ai-company
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?
+$0.02
+1.9%
$2.02
fee: $0.00
Yes
27d ago
best-ai-company
Yes
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?
Settled 12d ago
PnL
+$0.02
ROI
+1.9%
Volume
$2.02
fee: $0.00
btc-up-or-down-5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET
-$3.05
-101.8%
$3.00
fee: $0.05
Down
28d ago
btc-up-or-down-5m
Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET
Settled 28d ago
PnL
-$3.05
ROI
-101.8%
Volume
$3.00
fee: $0.05
busan-daily-weather
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on August 10?
-$6.19
-103.1%
$6.00
fee: $0.19
No
1mo ago
busan-daily-weather
No
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on August 10?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
-$6.19
ROI
-103.1%
Volume
$6.00
fee: $0.19
singapore-daily-weather
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on August 10?
-$10.34
-103.4%
$10.00
fee: $0.34
No
1mo ago
singapore-daily-weather
No
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on August 10?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
-$10.34
ROI
-103.4%
Volume
$10.00
fee: $0.34
P
trump-insult-on
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 19, 2026?
-$1.04
-103.6%
$1.00
fee: $0.04
Yes
1mo ago
P
trump-insult-on
Yes
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 19, 2026?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
-$1.04
ROI
-103.6%
Volume
$1.00
fee: $0.04
Will the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 3.1%?
—
—
$1.00
fee: $0.03
Active
1mo ago
Active
Will the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 3.1%?
Active 1mo ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$1.00
fee: $0.03
Will the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be between 2.5% and 2.7%?
—
—
$1.00
fee: $0.04
Active
1mo ago
Active
Will the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be between 2.5% and 2.7%?
Active 1mo ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$1.00
fee: $0.04
Trump signs housing bill by end of July?
-$3.12
-104.0%
$3.00
fee: $0.12
No
1mo ago
No
Trump signs housing bill by end of July?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
-$3.12
ROI
-104.0%
Volume
$3.00
fee: $0.12
P
core-cpi-mom
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.0% or less in July?
-$1.05
-104.9%
$1.00
fee: $0.05
No
1mo ago
P
core-cpi-mom
No
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.0% or less in July?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
-$1.05
ROI
-104.9%
Volume
$1.00
fee: $0.05
P
core-cpi-mom
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in July?
+$1.41
+141.0%
$1.00
fee: $0.03
Yes
1mo ago
P
core-cpi-mom
Yes
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in July?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
+$1.41
ROI
+141.0%
Volume
$1.00
fee: $0.03
P
core-cpi-mom
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in July?
-$1.04
-103.5%
$1.00
fee: $0.04
No
1mo ago
P
core-cpi-mom
No
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in July?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
-$1.04
ROI
-103.5%
Volume
$1.00
fee: $0.04
hong-kong-precipitation
Will Hong Kong have less than 400mm of precipitation in July?
-$1.02
-101.9%
$1.00
fee: $0.02
No
1mo ago
hong-kong-precipitation
No
Will Hong Kong have less than 400mm of precipitation in July?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
-$1.02
ROI
-101.9%
Volume
$1.00
fee: $0.02
Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.0% and 0.8%?
-$1.04
-103.5%
$1.00
fee: $0.04
No
2mo ago
No
Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.0% and 0.8%?
Settled 26d ago
PnL
-$1.04
ROI
-103.5%
Volume
$1.00
fee: $0.04
egg-prices-monthly
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–$2.25 in June?
+$0.11
+10.6%
$1.00
fee: $0.00
Yes
2mo ago
egg-prices-monthly
Yes
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–$2.25 in June?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
+$0.11
ROI
+10.6%
Volume
$1.00
fee: $0.00
ecb-interest-rates
Will the ECB announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?
-$3.03
-101.1%
$3.00
fee: $0.03
No
2mo ago
ecb-interest-rates
No
Will the ECB announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?
Settled 2d ago
PnL
-$3.03
ROI
-101.1%
Volume
$3.00
fee: $0.03
bank-of-korea-decision
Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the July Meeting?
+$0.35
+11.8%
$3.00
fee: $0.02
No
2mo ago
bank-of-korea-decision
No
Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the July Meeting?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
+$0.35
ROI
+11.8%
Volume
$3.00
fee: $0.02
china-gdp
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 5.5% and 5.8%?
-$1.05
-105.0%
$1.00
fee: $0.05
No
2mo ago
china-gdp
No
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 5.5% and 5.8%?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
-$1.05
ROI
-105.0%
Volume
$1.00
fee: $0.05
china-gdp
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%?
+$4.77
+476.8%
$1.00
fee: $0.04
Yes
2mo ago
china-gdp
Yes
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
+$4.77
ROI
+476.8%
Volume
$1.00
fee: $0.04
china-gdp
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.9% and 5.2%?
-$1.05
-104.7%
$1.00
fee: $0.05
No
2mo ago
china-gdp
No
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.9% and 5.2%?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
-$1.05
ROI
-104.7%
Volume
$1.00
fee: $0.05
soccer-fifwc
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-07?
-$2.04
-102.2%
$2.00
fee: $0.04
No
2mo ago
soccer-fifwc
No
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-07?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
-$2.04
ROI
-102.2%
Volume
$2.00
fee: $0.04
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
+$0.07
+7.3%
$1.00
fee: $0.00
Yes
2mo ago
Yes
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
+$0.07
ROI
+7.3%
Volume
$1.00
fee: $0.00
soccer-fifwc
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?
-$3.01
-100.4%
$3.00
fee: $0.01
No
2mo ago
soccer-fifwc
No
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
-$3.01
ROI
-100.4%
Volume
$3.00
fee: $0.01
soccer-fifwc
Will Spain win on 2026-07-02?
+$0.45
+44.5%
$1.00
fee: $0.01
Yes
2mo ago
soccer-fifwc
Yes
Will Spain win on 2026-07-02?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
+$0.45
ROI
+44.5%
Volume
$1.00
fee: $0.01
P
trump-insult-on
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 6, 2026?
-$3.11
-103.7%
$3.00
fee: $0.11
Yes
2mo ago
P
trump-insult-on
Yes
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 6, 2026?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
-$3.11
ROI
-103.7%
Volume
$3.00
fee: $0.11
P
trump-insult-on
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 5, 2026?
-$1.04
-103.7%
$1.00
fee: $0.04
Yes
2mo ago
P
trump-insult-on
Yes
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 5, 2026?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
-$1.04
ROI
-103.7%
Volume
$1.00
fee: $0.04
P
trump-insult-on
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 3, 2026?
-$1.04
-103.7%
$1.00
fee: $0.04
Yes
2mo ago
P
trump-insult-on
Yes
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 3, 2026?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
-$1.04
ROI
-103.7%
Volume
$1.00
fee: $0.04
P
trump-insult-on
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 2, 2026?
+$0.36
+7.2%
$5.00
fee: $0.01
Yes
2mo ago
P
trump-insult-on
Yes
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 2, 2026?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
+$0.36
ROI
+7.2%
Volume
$5.00
fee: $0.01
P
trump-insult-on
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 4, 2026?
-$5.18
-103.7%
$5.00
fee: $0.18
Yes
2mo ago
P
trump-insult-on
Yes
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 4, 2026?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
-$5.18
ROI
-103.7%
Volume
$5.00
fee: $0.18
best-ai-company
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
+$0.55
+11.1%
$5.00
fee: $0.02
No
2mo ago
best-ai-company
No
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
+$0.55
ROI
+11.1%
Volume
$5.00
fee: $0.02
best-ai-company
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
+$0.72
+14.4%
$5.00
fee: $0.03
Yes
2mo ago
best-ai-company
Yes
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
+$0.72
ROI
+14.4%
Volume
$5.00
fee: $0.03
nothing-ever-happens
Nothing Ever Happens: July
+$1.25
+25.0%
$5.00
Nothing
2mo ago
nothing-ever-happens
Nothing
Nothing Ever Happens: July
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
+$1.25
ROI
+25.0%
Volume
$5.00
trump-insult-on
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 27, 2026?
+$0.17
+5.7%
$3.00
fee: $0.01
Yes
2mo ago
trump-insult-on
Yes
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 27, 2026?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
+$0.17
ROI
+5.7%
Volume
$3.00
fee: $0.01
trump-insult-on
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 26, 2026?
+$0.36
+7.2%
$5.00
fee: $0.01
Yes
2mo ago
trump-insult-on
Yes
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 26, 2026?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
+$0.36
ROI
+7.2%
Volume
$5.00
fee: $0.01
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?
-$0.92
-92.0%
$1.13
fee: $0.05
No
2mo ago
No
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
-$0.92
ROI
-92.0%
Volume
$1.13
fee: $0.05
trump-insult-on
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 25, 2026?
-$5.19
-103.8%
$5.00
fee: $0.19
Yes
2mo ago
trump-insult-on
Yes
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 25, 2026?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
-$5.19
ROI
-103.8%
Volume
$5.00
fee: $0.19
tesla-deliveries
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026
-$20.26
-101.3%
$20.00
fee: $0.26
No
2mo ago
tesla-deliveries
No
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
-$20.26
ROI
-101.3%
Volume
$20.00
fee: $0.26
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 26, 2026?
+$0.27
+5.4%
$5.00
fee: $0.01
No
2mo ago
No
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 26, 2026?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
+$0.27
ROI
+5.4%
Volume
$5.00
fee: $0.01
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?
+$0.10
+9.5%
$1.00
fee: $0.00
No
2mo ago
No
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
+$0.10
ROI
+9.5%
Volume
$1.00
fee: $0.00
ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
+$5.42
+108.3%
$5.00
Yes
2mo ago
ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day
Yes
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
+$5.42
ROI
+108.3%
Volume
$5.00
how-many-7pt0-or-above-earthquakes
Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
-$10.00
-100.0%
$10.00
No
2mo ago
how-many-7pt0-or-above-earthquakes
No
Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
-$10.00
ROI
-100.0%
Volume
$10.00
trump-insult-on
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 23, 2026?
-$10.36
-103.6%
$10.00
fee: $0.36
Yes
2mo ago
trump-insult-on
Yes
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 23, 2026?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
-$10.36
ROI
-103.6%
Volume
$10.00
fee: $0.36
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18?
+$0.20
+2.0%
$10.00
fee: $0.01
No
2mo ago
No
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
+$0.20
ROI
+2.0%
Volume
$10.00
fee: $0.01
trump-agree-iran
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?
-$5.00
-100.0%
$5.00
No
2mo ago
trump-agree-iran
No
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
-$5.00
ROI
-100.0%
Volume
$5.00
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?
+$4.58
+45.8%
$10.00
No
2mo ago
No
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
+$4.58
ROI
+45.8%
Volume
$10.00
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20?
+$9.91
+198.2%
$5.00
No
2mo ago
No
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
+$9.91
ROI
+198.2%
Volume
$5.00
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?
+$1.19
+11.9%
$10.00
fee: $0.04
No
3mo ago
No
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
+$1.19
ROI
+11.9%
Volume
$10.00
fee: $0.04
nuclear-deal
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
-$53.00
-100.0%
$53.00
Yes
3mo ago
nuclear-deal
Yes
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
-$53.00
ROI
-100.0%
Volume
$53.00
P
Will Austria be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?
-$5.08
-101.5%
$5.00
fee: $0.08
No
3mo ago
P
No
Will Austria be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
-$5.08
ROI
-101.5%
Volume
$5.00
fee: $0.08
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026?
+$21.25
+212.5%
$10.00
No
3mo ago
No
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
+$21.25
ROI
+212.5%
Volume
$10.00
ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?
-$10.00
-100.0%
$10.00
No
3mo ago
ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz
No
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
-$10.00
ROI
-100.0%
Volume
$10.00
us-annual-inflation
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May?
-$4.65
-93.1%
$5.53
fee: $0.18
No
3mo ago
us-annual-inflation
No
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May?
Settled 3mo ago
PnL
-$4.65
ROI
-93.1%
Volume
$5.53
fee: $0.18
trump-monthly-meeting
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in June 2026?
+$0.33
+33.3%
$1.00
No
3mo ago
trump-monthly-meeting
No
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in June 2026?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
+$0.33
ROI
+33.3%
Volume
$1.00
6pt5-earthquake-weekly
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14?
+$16.52
+110.1%
$15.00
fee: $0.40
Yes
3mo ago
6pt5-earthquake-weekly
Yes
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
+$16.52
ROI
+110.1%
Volume
$15.00
fee: $0.40
P
ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7?
+$7.78
+38.9%
$20.00
Yes
3mo ago
P
ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz
Yes
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7?
Settled 3mo ago
PnL
+$7.78
ROI
+38.9%
Volume
$20.00
best-ai-model
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?
+$0.95
+9.5%
$10.00
fee: $0.04
Yes
3mo ago
best-ai-model
Yes
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?
Settled 3mo ago
PnL
+$0.95
ROI
+9.5%
Volume
$10.00
fee: $0.04
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
-$30.00
-100.0%
$30.00
Yes
3mo ago
Yes
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
-$30.00
ROI
-100.0%
Volume
$30.00
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026?
-$4.09
-103.4%
$22.44
fee: $0.13
Yes
3mo ago
Yes
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
-$4.09
ROI
-103.4%
Volume
$22.44
fee: $0.13
Will Fiona Ma win the California Lieutenant Governor Election in 2026?
+$2.35
+23.5%
$22.35
fee: $0.21
Active
3mo ago
Active
Will Fiona Ma win the California Lieutenant Governor Election in 2026?
Active 3mo ago
PnL
+$2.35
ROI
+23.5%
Volume
$22.35
fee: $0.21
trump-agree-iran
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
-$20.00
-100.0%
$20.00
Yes
3mo ago
trump-agree-iran
Yes
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
-$20.00
ROI
-100.0%
Volume
$20.00
nothing-ever-happens
Nothing Ever Happens: June
-$5.00
-100.0%
$5.00
Nothing
3mo ago
nothing-ever-happens
Nothing
Nothing Ever Happens: June
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
-$5.00
ROI
-100.0%
Volume
$5.00
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
-$20.00
-100.0%
$20.00
Yes
3mo ago
Yes
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
-$20.00
ROI
-100.0%
Volume
$20.00
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1500 and 1510?
-$5.05
-101.0%
$5.00
fee: $0.05
No
3mo ago
No
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1500 and 1510?
Settled 3mo ago
PnL
-$5.05
ROI
-101.0%
Volume
$5.00
fee: $0.05
trump-monthly-meeting
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026?
-$10.00
-100.0%
$10.00
Yes
3mo ago
trump-monthly-meeting
Yes
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
-$10.00
ROI
-100.0%
Volume
$10.00
P
Did an engine failure cause the Blue Origin New Glenn explosion?
-$2.03
-101.4%
$2.00
fee: $0.03
No
3mo ago
P
No
Did an engine failure cause the Blue Origin New Glenn explosion?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
-$2.03
ROI
-101.4%
Volume
$2.00
fee: $0.03
P
trump-weekly-mentions
Will Trump say "Midnight Hammer" this week?
-$3.06
-101.9%
$3.00
fee: $0.06
No
3mo ago
P
trump-weekly-mentions
No
Will Trump say "Midnight Hammer" this week?
Settled 3mo ago
PnL
-$3.06
ROI
-101.9%
Volume
$3.00
fee: $0.06
trump-declassifies-ufo
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?
-$51.14
-102.3%
$50.00
fee: $1.14
Yes
3mo ago
trump-declassifies-ufo
Yes
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?
Settled 3mo ago
PnL
-$51.14
ROI
-102.3%
Volume
$50.00
fee: $1.14
ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
-$4.00
-100.0%
$4.00
No
3mo ago
ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day
No
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
Settled 3mo ago
PnL
-$4.00
ROI
-100.0%
Volume
$4.00
enrichment-of-uranium
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?
-$0.47
-47.1%
$1.53
No
3mo ago
enrichment-of-uranium
No
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?
Settled 3mo ago
PnL
-$0.47
ROI
-47.1%
Volume
$1.53
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
+$5.87
+58.7%
$10.00
No
3mo ago
No
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
Settled 3mo ago
PnL
+$5.87
ROI
+58.7%
Volume
$10.00
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?
+$9.29
+185.7%
$5.00
No
3mo ago
No
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?
Settled 3mo ago
PnL
+$9.29
ROI
+185.7%
Volume
$5.00
nothing-ever-happens
Nothing Ever Happens: May
+$10.85
+54.2%
$20.00
Nothing
3mo ago
nothing-ever-happens
Nothing
Nothing Ever Happens: May
Settled 3mo ago
PnL
+$10.85
ROI
+54.2%
Volume
$20.00
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
+$97.06
+194.1%
$50.00
No
3mo ago
No
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Settled 3mo ago
PnL
+$97.06
ROI
+194.1%
Volume
$50.00
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?
-$0.07
-104.0%
$66.59
fee: $0.00
Yes
3mo ago
Yes
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?
Settled 3mo ago
PnL
-$0.07
ROI
-104.0%
Volume
$66.59
fee: $0.00
Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle?
-$0.08
-4.0%
$3.93
fee: $0.01
No
3mo ago
No
Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
-$0.08
ROI
-4.0%
Volume
$3.93
fee: $0.01
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026?
-$10.09
-100.9%
$10.01
fee: $0.11
No
3mo ago
No
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026?
Settled 3mo ago
PnL
-$10.09
ROI
-100.9%
Volume
$10.01
fee: $0.11
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?
+$0.81
+16.3%
$5.00
No
3mo ago
No
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?
Settled 3mo ago
PnL
+$0.81
ROI
+16.3%
Volume
$5.00
hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
+$3.89
+38.9%
$10.00
No
4mo ago
hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal
No
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Settled 3mo ago
PnL
+$3.89
ROI
+38.9%
Volume
$10.00
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
+$2.86
+14.3%
$20.00
No
4mo ago
No
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
Settled 3mo ago
PnL
+$2.86
ROI
+14.3%
Volume
$20.00
putin-out-as-president
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?
-$5.00
-100.0%
$5.00
No
4mo ago
putin-out-as-president
No
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
-$5.00
ROI
-100.0%
Volume
$5.00
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?
-$35.94
-102.7%
$35.00
fee: $0.94
No
4mo ago
No
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
-$35.94
ROI
-102.7%
Volume
$35.00
fee: $0.94
top-ai-company-style-on
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?
-$17.57
-103.4%
$17.00
fee: $0.57
No
4mo ago
top-ai-company-style-on
No
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?
Settled 3mo ago
PnL
-$17.57
ROI
-103.4%
Volume
$17.00
fee: $0.57
best-ai-company
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
-$40.66
-103.3%
$39.35
fee: $1.31
No
4mo ago
best-ai-company
No
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
Settled 3mo ago
PnL
-$40.66
ROI
-103.3%
Volume
$39.35
fee: $1.31
3rd-largest-company
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
-$1.88
-104.4%
$14.58
fee: $0.08
Yes
4mo ago
3rd-largest-company
Yes
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
Settled 3mo ago
PnL
-$1.88
ROI
-104.4%
Volume
$14.58
fee: $0.08
98 Markets