ca
casualInferencecasualInferen...
View on PolymarketCreated August 31, 2025
Active July 6, 2026
Balance$53.92
PnL Over Time
Cumulative PnL+$4.15
Jun 25
Jun 28
Jul 1
Jul 4
Jul 7
Top Categories
Last 30 DaysWeather+$6.18
WR: 80.0%(12/15)
ROI: +12.4%
Tech+$4.32
WR: 40.0%(2/5)
ROI: +44.1%
Finance+$0.26
WR: 33.3%(2/6)
ROI: +5.0%
Sports+$0.20
WR: 100.0%(1/1)
ROI: +2.0%
Soccer+$0.20
WR: 100.0%(1/1)
ROI: +2.0%
Trading Style
Last 30 DaysMaker Volume$11.38
6.6%
Taker Volume$161.45
93.4%
Taker Ratio
93%
Performance Snapshot
24 Hours
Net PnL
+$0.00
ROI
0.0%
Win Rate
0.0%
Volume
$2.55
Fee
$0.00
0 Wins in 1 Markets
3 Days
Net PnL
-$0.50
ROI
-3.3%
Win Rate
28.6%
Volume
$41.99
Fee
$0.33
4 Wins in 14 Markets
7 Days
Net PnL
+$3.52
ROI
10.1%
Win Rate
36.4%
Volume
$79.38
Fee
$0.74
8 Wins in 22 Markets
30 Days
Net PnL
+$4.15
ROI
4.4%
Win Rate
46.7%
Volume
$172.83
Fee
$1.58
21 Wins in 45 Markets
Recent Markets | total 45
Market
PnL
ROI
Volume
Status
P
PnL—
ROI—
Volume
jeddah-daily-weather
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on July 8?—
—
fee: $0.07
Active
1d ago
jeddah-daily-weather
Active
Active 1d ago
PnL—
ROI—
Volumefee: $0.07
PnL—
ROI—
Volumefee: $0.04
nyc-daily-lowest-temperature
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 5?-$2.34
-100.0%
Yes
1d ago
nyc-daily-lowest-temperature
Yes
Settled 1d ago
PnL-$2.34
ROI-100.0%
Volume
PnL—
ROI—
Volumefee: $0.00
helsinki-daily-weather
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on July 6?+$0.06
+1.9%
fee: $0.00
No
2d ago
PnL+$0.06
ROI+1.9%
Volumefee: $0.00
P
inflation-uk-annual
Will UK annual inflation be between 2.5% and 2.7% in June?—
—
fee: $0.04
Active
2d ago
P
PnL—
ROI—
Volumefee: $0.04
PnL—
ROI—
Volumefee: $0.02
PnL+$0.07
ROI+2.0%
Volumefee: $0.00
opendoor-hit-price-monthly
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.00 in July?—
—
fee: $0.01
Active
2d ago
opendoor-hit-price-monthly
Active
Active 2d ago
PnL—
ROI—
Volumefee: $0.01
P
PnL—
ROI—
Volumefee: $0.06
lucknow-daily-weather
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on July 6?+$0.28
+10.6%
fee: $0.01
No
2d ago
PnL+$0.28
ROI+10.6%
Volumefee: $0.01
P
—
—
fee: $0.02
Active
2d ago
P
h100-rental-price
Active
Active 2d ago
PnL—
ROI—
Volumefee: $0.02
milan-daily-weather
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on July 5?+$1.43
+35.6%
fee: $0.05
No
2d ago
PnL+$1.43
ROI+35.6%
Volumefee: $0.05
P
PnL—
ROI—
Volume
amsterdam-daily-weather
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 3?+$0.08
+1.9%
fee: $0.00
No
5d ago
PnL+$0.08
ROI+1.9%
Volumefee: $0.00
PnL+$7.44
ROI+250.9%
Volumefee: $0.16
-$3.45
-102.8%
fee: $0.10
Yes
5d ago
P
all-in-podcast
Yes
Settled 3d ago
PnL-$3.45
ROI-102.8%
Volumefee: $0.10
london-daily-lowest-temperature
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on July 3?+$0.14
+4.0%
fee: $0.01
No
5d ago
london-daily-lowest-temperature
No
Settled 3d ago
PnL+$0.14
ROI+4.0%
Volumefee: $0.01
busan-daily-weather
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on July 3?-$3.64
-102.1%
fee: $0.07
Yes
6d ago
PnL-$3.64
ROI-102.1%
Volumefee: $0.07
P
PnL—
ROI—
Volume
toronto-daily-weather
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 36°C on July 1?+$3.46
+167.1%
fee: $0.07
Yes
6d ago
PnL+$3.46
ROI+167.1%
Volumefee: $0.07
PnL—
ROI—
Volumefee: $0.02
PnL—
ROI—
Volumefee: $0.03
denver-daily-weather
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 30?+$0.81
+21.1%
fee: $0.03
No
7d ago
denver-daily-weather
No
Settled 6d ago
PnL+$0.81
ROI+21.1%
Volumefee: $0.03
PnL—
ROI—
Volumefee: $0.15
PnL+$0.20
ROI+2.0%
Volumefee: $0.01
PnL—
ROI—
Volumefee: $0.05
PnL+$0.33
ROI+9.5%
Volumefee: $0.01
seoul-daily-weather
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 30?+$0.16
+4.4%
fee: $0.01
No
8d ago
PnL+$0.16
ROI+4.4%
Volumefee: $0.01
P
ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz
Will fewer than 75 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 29-July 5?—
—
Active
8d ago
P
ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz
Active
Active 8d ago
PnL—
ROI—
Volume
netflix-hit-price-monthly
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $70 in June?+$0.19
+10.7%
fee: $0.01
No
8d ago
PnL+$0.19
ROI+10.7%
Volumefee: $0.01
elon-tweets-48h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?+$0.43
+11.8%
fee: $0.02
No
9d ago
PnL+$0.43
ROI+11.8%
Volumefee: $0.02
P
PnL—
ROI—
Volume
whitehouse-daily-tweets
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026?-$4.08
-102.0%
fee: $0.08
Yes
9d ago
whitehouse-daily-tweets
Yes
Settled 3d ago
PnL-$4.08
ROI-102.0%
Volumefee: $0.08
khamenei-daily-tweets
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026?+$0.05
+2.0%
fee: $0.00
No
9d ago
PnL+$0.05
ROI+2.0%
Volumefee: $0.00
paris-daily-lowest-temperature
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 29?+$2.71
+59.4%
fee: $0.09
No
10d ago
paris-daily-lowest-temperature
No
Settled 7d ago
PnL+$2.71
ROI+59.4%
Volumefee: $0.09
istanbul-daily-weather
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 29?+$0.58
+11.8%
fee: $0.03
No
10d ago
PnL+$0.58
ROI+11.8%
Volumefee: $0.03
PnL—
ROI—
Volumefee: $0.05
box-office-openings
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 69m and 73m?-$3.52
-102.3%
fee: $0.08
Yes
10d ago
box-office-openings
Yes
Settled 7d ago
PnL-$3.52
ROI-102.3%
Volumefee: $0.08
jeddah-daily-weather
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 28?+$1.82
+49.8%
fee: $0.06
No
10d ago
PnL+$1.82
ROI+49.8%
Volumefee: $0.06
denver-daily-weather
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 27?+$0.64
+15.6%
fee: $0.03
No
10d ago
denver-daily-weather
No
Settled 9d ago
PnL+$0.64
ROI+15.6%
Volumefee: $0.03
PnL+$0.06
ROI+5.9%
Volumefee: $0.01
PnL+$0.26
ROI+4.3%
Volumefee: $0.03
P
PnL—
ROI—
Volumefee: $0.04
45 Markets