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BlackswanDefi
BlackswanDefi
@Blackswan_DeFi
View on Polymarket
Created
July 4, 2025
Active
July 4, 2026
Balance
$2.49K
Incoming
+$38.39K
Rewards
+$529.29
Outgoing
-$31.61K
PnL Over Time
Cumulative PnL
+$5.38K
1D
3D
7D
30D
All
Apr 28
May 16
Jun 2
Jun 20
Jul 7
Top Categories
Last 30 Days
Geopolitics
+$220.70
WR: 66.7%
(2/3)
ROI: +0.8%
Economy
+$200.70
WR: 100.0%
(1/1)
ROI: +2.5%
Politics
+$126.55
WR: 16.7%
(1/6)
ROI: +1.3%
Crypto
+$31.96
WR: 33.3%
(1/3)
ROI: +0.3%
Weather
+$10.27
WR: 100.0%
(1/1)
ROI: +9.3%
Trading Style
Last 30 Days
Maker Volume
$119.37K
98.8%
Taker Volume
$1.47K
1.2%
Taker Ratio
1%
Performance Snapshot
24 Hours
Net PnL
+$0.00
ROI
0.0%
Win Rate
0.0%
Volume
$0.00
Fee
$0.00
0 Wins in 0 Markets
3 Days
Net PnL
+$0.00
ROI
0.0%
Win Rate
0.0%
Volume
$0.00
Fee
$0.00
0 Wins in 0 Markets
7 Days
Net PnL
-$0.00
ROI
0.0%
Win Rate
0.0%
Volume
$10.41K
Fee
$0.00
0 Wins in 3 Markets
30 Days
Net PnL
-$76.78
ROI
-0.2%
Win Rate
28.6%
Volume
$120.84K
Fee
$6.37
4 Wins in 14 Markets
Recent Markets
| total 55
Market
PnL
ROI
Volume
Status
us-national-bitcoin-reserve
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?
—
—
$253.00
Active
3d ago
us-national-bitcoin-reserve
Active
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?
Active 3d ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$253.00
china-invade-taiwan
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
—
—
$3.30K
Active
5d ago
china-invade-taiwan
Active
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
Active 5d ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$3.30K
Is Earth flat?
-$0.00
-0.0%
$6.85K
Active
6d ago
Active
Is Earth flat?
Active 6d ago
PnL
-$0.00
ROI
-0.0%
Volume
$6.85K
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026?
—
—
$114.22
fee: $0.13
Active
8d ago
Active
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026?
Active 8d ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$114.22
fee: $0.13
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?
-$2.37
-2.8%
$457.70
fee: $0.52
Active
8d ago
Active
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?
Active 8d ago
PnL
-$2.37
ROI
-2.8%
Volume
$457.70
fee: $0.52
soccer-fifwc
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?
-$2.17
-2.2%
$198.80
fee: $0.98
No
9d ago
soccer-fifwc
No
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?
Settled 8d ago
PnL
-$2.17
ROI
-2.2%
Volume
$198.80
fee: $0.98
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
+$34.32
+0.3%
$41.74K
Active
10d ago
Active
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
Active 10d ago
PnL
+$34.32
ROI
+0.3%
Volume
$41.74K
paris-daily-weather
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C or below on June 27?
+$10.27
+9.3%
$110.00
fee: $0.49
Yes
10d ago
paris-daily-weather
Yes
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C or below on June 27?
Settled 9d ago
PnL
+$10.27
ROI
+9.3%
Volume
$110.00
fee: $0.49
xi-jinping-out
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
+$20.00
+0.1%
$37.32K
Active
18d ago
xi-jinping-out
Active
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
Active 18d ago
PnL
+$20.00
ROI
+0.1%
Volume
$37.32K
hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
+$200.70
+2.5%
$16.20K
Active
22d ago
hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal
Active
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Active 22d ago
PnL
+$200.70
ROI
+2.5%
Volume
$16.20K
Human moon landing in 2026?
-$0.00
-0.0%
$9.69K
Active
24d ago
Active
Human moon landing in 2026?
Active 24d ago
PnL
-$0.00
ROI
-0.0%
Volume
$9.69K
Trump goes to space in 2026?
-$29.28
-1.5%
$3.88K
fee: $0.87
Active
25d ago
Active
Trump goes to space in 2026?
Active 25d ago
PnL
-$29.28
ROI
-1.5%
Volume
$3.88K
fee: $0.87
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?
-$263.38
-69.3%
$500.00
fee: $3.38
Yes
26d ago
Yes
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?
Settled 12d ago
PnL
-$263.38
ROI
-69.3%
Volume
$500.00
fee: $3.38
nothing-ever-happens
Nothing Ever Happens: June
-$44.87
-33.3%
$224.36
Nothing
26d ago
nothing-ever-happens
Nothing
Nothing Ever Happens: June
Settled 4d ago
PnL
-$44.87
ROI
-33.3%
Volume
$224.36
trump-out
Trump out as President before 2027?
+$70.00
+1.1%
$12.53K
Active
1mo ago
trump-out
Active
Trump out as President before 2027?
Active 1mo ago
PnL
+$70.00
ROI
+1.1%
Volume
$12.53K
fomc
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
-$1.30
-0.0%
$50.68K
fee: $5.30
Yes
1mo ago
fomc
Yes
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
Settled 19d ago
PnL
-$1.30
ROI
-0.0%
Volume
$50.68K
fee: $5.30
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?
+$16.69
+1.1%
$7.23K
Active
1mo ago
Active
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?
Active 1mo ago
PnL
+$16.69
ROI
+1.1%
Volume
$7.23K
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch?
-$173.85
-100.0%
$173.85
Yes
1mo ago
Yes
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch?
Settled 9d ago
PnL
-$173.85
ROI
-100.0%
Volume
$173.85
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
+$2.08K
+12.3%
$2.08K
No
1mo ago
No
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Settled 6d ago
PnL
+$2.08K
ROI
+12.3%
Volume
$2.08K
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?
-$240.00
-28.6%
$1.44K
No
1mo ago
No
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?
Settled 24d ago
PnL
-$240.00
ROI
-28.6%
Volume
$1.44K
putin-out-as-president
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
+$211.64
+0.4%
$119.78K
Active
1mo ago
putin-out-as-president
Active
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
Active 1mo ago
PnL
+$211.64
ROI
+0.4%
Volume
$119.78K
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?
—
—
$439.96
fee: $9.86
Active
1mo ago
Active
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?
Active 1mo ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$439.96
fee: $9.86
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
+$8.00
+0.2%
$7.44K
fee: $20.84
Active
1mo ago
Active
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Active 1mo ago
PnL
+$8.00
ROI
+0.2%
Volume
$7.44K
fee: $20.84
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31?
—
—
$140.00
Active
1mo ago
Active
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31?
Active 1mo ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$140.00
china-coup
China coup attempt before 2027?
—
—
$1.38
Active
1mo ago
china-coup
Active
China coup attempt before 2027?
Active 1mo ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$1.38
fomc
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
—
—
$24.39
Active
1mo ago
fomc
Active
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Active 1mo ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$24.39
trump-countries-visited
Will Donald Trump visit France in 2026?
+$1.32
+5.1%
$26.00
fee: $0.05
Yes
1mo ago
trump-countries-visited
Yes
Will Donald Trump visit France in 2026?
Settled 21d ago
PnL
+$1.32
ROI
+5.1%
Volume
$26.00
fee: $0.05
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
—
—
$130.33
Active
1mo ago
Active
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Active 1mo ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$130.33
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
—
—
$180.00
Active
1mo ago
Active
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Active 1mo ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$180.00
Metamask FDV above $4B one day after launch?
—
—
$116.18
Active
1mo ago
Active
Metamask FDV above $4B one day after launch?
Active 1mo ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$116.18
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
—
—
$500.00
fee: $19.73
Active
1mo ago
Active
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Active 1mo ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$500.00
fee: $19.73
hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
+$74.99
+9.1%
$1.72K
Active
1mo ago
hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal
Active
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Active 1mo ago
PnL
+$74.99
ROI
+9.1%
Volume
$1.72K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
+$3.05K
+43.9%
$3.05K
No
1mo ago
No
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
+$3.05K
ROI
+43.9%
Volume
$3.05K
nuclear-deal
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
+$379.81
+48.7%
$1.94K
Yes
1mo ago
nuclear-deal
Yes
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
Settled 22d ago
PnL
+$379.81
ROI
+48.7%
Volume
$1.94K
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
—
—
$210.00
Active
1mo ago
Active
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Active 1mo ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$210.00
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
—
—
$300.00
fee: $11.88
Active
1mo ago
Active
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Active 1mo ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$300.00
fee: $11.88
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
—
—
$300.00
fee: $11.92
Active
1mo ago
Active
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Active 1mo ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$300.00
fee: $11.92
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
—
—
$400.00
fee: $15.87
Active
1mo ago
Active
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Active 1mo ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$400.00
fee: $15.87
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
-$58.00
-35.8%
$266.00
fee: $4.93
Active
1mo ago
Active
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Active 1mo ago
PnL
-$58.00
ROI
-35.8%
Volume
$266.00
fee: $4.93
iran-regime
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
-$76.38
-21.8%
$623.62
No
1mo ago
iran-regime
No
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
-$76.38
ROI
-21.8%
Volume
$623.62
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?
+$1.89
+4.0%
$47.75
Yes
1mo ago
Yes
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?
Settled 24d ago
PnL
+$1.89
ROI
+4.0%
Volume
$47.75
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
—
—
$2.76K
Active
1mo ago
Active
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
Active 1mo ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$2.76K
hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
-$463.53
-40.0%
$1.85K
No
1mo ago
hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal
No
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
-$463.53
ROI
-40.0%
Volume
$1.85K
china-invade-taiwan
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
-$84.00
-0.4%
$39.49K
Active
1mo ago
china-invade-taiwan
Active
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Active 1mo ago
PnL
-$84.00
ROI
-0.4%
Volume
$39.49K
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
+$463.56
+164.7%
$470.61
fee: $7.04
Yes
2mo ago
Yes
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
+$463.56
ROI
+164.7%
Volume
$470.61
fee: $7.04
hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
-$100.00
-100.0%
$100.00
No
2mo ago
hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal
No
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
-$100.00
ROI
-100.0%
Volume
$100.00
Will GTA 6 cost $100+?
—
—
$775.52
Active
2mo ago
Active
Will GTA 6 cost $100+?
Active 2mo ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$775.52
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?
-$1.15K
-9.1%
$24.05K
No
2mo ago
No
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
-$1.15K
ROI
-9.1%
Volume
$24.05K
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
+$27.61
+0.3%
$22.11K
No
2mo ago
No
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
+$27.61
ROI
+0.3%
Volume
$22.11K
Will Iran legalize gay marriage?
—
—
$73.01
Active
2mo ago
Active
Will Iran legalize gay marriage?
Active 2mo ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$73.01
55 Markets
•
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