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PolyPnL
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FortunatelyFestive
FortunatelyFe...
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Created
February 25, 2025
Active
July 3, 2026
Balance
$2.12K
Incoming
+$31.27K
Rewards
+$133.32
Outgoing
-$122.01K
PnL Over Time
Cumulative PnL
+$24.02K
1D
3D
7D
30D
All
Apr 28
May 16
Jun 2
Jun 20
Jul 7
Top Categories
Last 30 Days
Geopolitics
+$4.01K
WR: 69.2%
(9/13)
ROI: +18.6%
Politics
+$3.82K
WR: 58.8%
(10/17)
ROI: +15.7%
Pop Culture
+$238.20
WR: 100.0%
(2/2)
ROI: +4.5%
Elections
+$22.34
WR: 100.0%
(1/1)
ROI: +2.1%
Tech
+$11.93
WR: 50.0%
(2/4)
ROI: +1.8%
Trading Style
Last 30 Days
Maker Volume
$7.11K
10.5%
Taker Volume
$60.45K
89.5%
Taker Ratio
89%
Performance Snapshot
24 Hours
Net PnL
+$0.00
ROI
0.0%
Win Rate
0.0%
Volume
$0.00
Fee
$0.00
0 Wins in 0 Markets
3 Days
Net PnL
+$0.00
ROI
0.0%
Win Rate
0.0%
Volume
$0.00
Fee
$0.00
0 Wins in 0 Markets
7 Days
Net PnL
+$0.00
ROI
0.0%
Win Rate
0.0%
Volume
$216.71
Fee
$0.00
0 Wins in 1 Markets
30 Days
Net PnL
+$4.20K
ROI
13.4%
Win Rate
62.5%
Volume
$67.56K
Fee
$43.79
15 Wins in 24 Markets
Recent Markets
| total 71
Market
PnL
ROI
Volume
Status
Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by December 31, 2026?
—
—
$216.71
Active
4d ago
Active
Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by December 31, 2026?
Active 4d ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$216.71
us-forces-in-venezuela
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?
+$380.92
+8.1%
$4.72K
Yes
10d ago
us-forces-in-venezuela
Yes
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?
Settled 7d ago
PnL
+$380.92
ROI
+8.1%
Volume
$4.72K
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
+$99.70
+9.5%
$2.20K
No
10d ago
No
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Settled 5d ago
PnL
+$99.70
ROI
+9.5%
Volume
$2.20K
Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by June 30, 2026?
-$23.61
-100.1%
$464.24
fee: $0.01
No
10d ago
No
Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by June 30, 2026?
Settled 6d ago
PnL
-$23.61
ROI
-100.1%
Volume
$464.24
fee: $0.01
companies-with-1-ai
Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by June 30?
-$0.97
-104.0%
$463.74
fee: $0.04
No
10d ago
companies-with-1-ai
No
Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by June 30?
Settled 6d ago
PnL
-$0.97
ROI
-104.0%
Volume
$463.74
fee: $0.04
companies-with-1-ai
Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by June 30?
+$5.31
+1.8%
$846.04
fee: $0.55
No
11d ago
companies-with-1-ai
No
Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by June 30?
Settled 6d ago
PnL
+$5.31
ROI
+1.8%
Volume
$846.04
fee: $0.55
companies-with-1-ai
Will Baidu have a #1 AI model by June 30?
+$7.65
+2.2%
$757.43
fee: $0.48
No
11d ago
companies-with-1-ai
No
Will Baidu have a #1 AI model by June 30?
Settled 6d ago
PnL
+$7.65
ROI
+2.2%
Volume
$757.43
fee: $0.48
companies-with-1-ai
Will Meituan have a #1 AI model by June 30?
-$0.06
-104.0%
$30.94
fee: $0.00
No
11d ago
companies-with-1-ai
No
Will Meituan have a #1 AI model by June 30?
Settled 6d ago
PnL
-$0.06
ROI
-104.0%
Volume
$30.94
fee: $0.00
Will Trump visit North Korea by June 30?
+$0.71
+1.4%
$100.71
No
11d ago
No
Will Trump visit North Korea by June 30?
Settled 6d ago
PnL
+$0.71
ROI
+1.4%
Volume
$100.71
UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026?
+$126.73
+12.7%
$2.13K
Active
11d ago
Active
UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026?
Active 11d ago
PnL
+$126.73
ROI
+12.7%
Volume
$2.13K
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by June 30, 2026?
+$37.70
+1.5%
$3.60K
fee: $1.64
No
11d ago
No
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by June 30, 2026?
Settled 6d ago
PnL
+$37.70
ROI
+1.5%
Volume
$3.60K
fee: $1.64
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?
+$69.39
+3.5%
$4.07K
No
11d ago
No
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?
Settled 6d ago
PnL
+$69.39
ROI
+3.5%
Volume
$4.07K
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?
—
—
$2.60K
Active
16d ago
Active
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?
Active 16d ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$2.60K
trump-agree-iran
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
+$3.44K
+61.8%
$14.58K
Yes
18d ago
trump-agree-iran
Yes
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
Settled 15d ago
PnL
+$3.44K
ROI
+61.8%
Volume
$14.58K
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
+$155.06
+5.4%
$6.88K
fee: $19.92
Active
18d ago
Active
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
Active 18d ago
PnL
+$155.06
ROI
+5.4%
Volume
$6.88K
fee: $19.92
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
—
—
$1.88K
Active
18d ago
Active
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
Active 18d ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$1.88K
us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
-$215.54
-11.9%
$3.42K
Yes
18d ago
us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting
Yes
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Settled 15d ago
PnL
-$215.54
ROI
-11.9%
Volume
$3.42K
trump-out
Trump out as President by June 30?
+$22.34
+2.1%
$3.10K
fee: $1.18
No
19d ago
trump-out
No
Trump out as President by June 30?
Settled 6d ago
PnL
+$22.34
ROI
+2.1%
Volume
$3.10K
fee: $1.18
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?
+$33.12
+1.6%
$4.23K
No
19d ago
No
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?
Settled 6d ago
PnL
+$33.12
ROI
+1.6%
Volume
$4.23K
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?
+$83.14
+3.5%
$6.01K
fee: $5.35
No
19d ago
No
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?
Settled 6d ago
PnL
+$83.14
ROI
+3.5%
Volume
$6.01K
fee: $5.35
trump-agree-iran
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
+$10.18
+0.5%
$2.33K
No
21d ago
trump-agree-iran
No
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
Settled 3d ago
PnL
+$10.18
ROI
+0.5%
Volume
$2.33K
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?
-$94.08
-25.8%
$870.04
fee: $14.29
Active
22d ago
Active
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?
Active 22d ago
PnL
-$94.08
ROI
-25.8%
Volume
$870.04
fee: $14.29
gold-card
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2026?
-$0.21
-1.1%
$7.40
fee: $0.34
Active
26d ago
gold-card
Active
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2026?
Active 26d ago
PnL
-$0.21
ROI
-1.1%
Volume
$7.40
fee: $0.34
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
+$60.23
+6.0%
$2.06K
Active
29d ago
Active
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
Active 29d ago
PnL
+$60.23
ROI
+6.0%
Volume
$2.06K
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
+$20.01K
+21.9%
$140.44K
fee: $2.14K
No
1mo ago
No
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
+$20.01K
ROI
+21.9%
Volume
$140.44K
fee: $2.14K
china-invade-taiwan
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
—
—
$50.12K
Active
1mo ago
china-invade-taiwan
Active
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Active 1mo ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$50.12K
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?
+$90.27
+8.5%
$2.19K
No
1mo ago
No
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
+$90.27
ROI
+8.5%
Volume
$2.19K
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31?
+$16.20
+1.1%
$2.92K
fee: $5.69
No
1mo ago
No
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
+$16.20
ROI
+1.1%
Volume
$2.92K
fee: $5.69
china-gdp
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%?
-$0.62
-0.7%
$695.50
fee: $16.40
Active
1mo ago
china-gdp
Active
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%?
Active 1mo ago
PnL
-$0.62
ROI
-0.7%
Volume
$695.50
fee: $16.40
hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
+$12.55
+6.0%
$261.35
No
1mo ago
hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal
No
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
Settled 13d ago
PnL
+$12.55
ROI
+6.0%
Volume
$261.35
ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
-$9.85
-0.4%
$3.37K
No
1mo ago
ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day
No
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
-$9.85
ROI
-0.4%
Volume
$3.37K
trump-agree-iran
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?
+$59.27
+2.4%
$4.79K
No
1mo ago
trump-agree-iran
No
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
+$59.27
ROI
+2.4%
Volume
$4.79K
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
—
—
$890.00
Active
1mo ago
Active
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Active 1mo ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$890.00
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?
+$68.82
+5.6%
$1.22K
No
1mo ago
No
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
+$68.82
ROI
+5.6%
Volume
$1.22K
warships
Will South Korea send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?
+$31.65
+4.0%
$790.00
No
1mo ago
warships
No
Will South Korea send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
+$31.65
ROI
+4.0%
Volume
$790.00
warships
Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?
+$10.67
+1.1%
$960.00
No
1mo ago
warships
No
Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
+$10.67
ROI
+1.1%
Volume
$960.00
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
+$120.17
+4.0%
$3.02K
No
1mo ago
No
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
+$120.17
ROI
+4.0%
Volume
$3.02K
hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
—
—
$1.73K
Active
1mo ago
hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal
Active
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Active 1mo ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$1.73K
hormuz-transits-neg
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?
+$12.46
+1.9%
$670.00
No
1mo ago
hormuz-transits-neg
No
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
+$12.46
ROI
+1.9%
Volume
$670.00
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?
-$124.70
-102.6%
$5.40K
fee: $4.81
No
1mo ago
No
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
-$124.70
ROI
-102.6%
Volume
$5.40K
fee: $4.81
best-math-ai
Will Alibaba have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?
+$4.95
+0.9%
$550.00
fee: $0.20
No
1mo ago
best-math-ai
No
Will Alibaba have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
+$4.95
ROI
+0.9%
Volume
$550.00
fee: $0.20
ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?
+$19.89
+9.9%
$200.00
No
1mo ago
ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz
No
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
+$19.89
ROI
+9.9%
Volume
$200.00
china-gdp
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.9% and 5.2%?
—
—
$310.00
fee: $9.70
Active
1mo ago
china-gdp
Active
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.9% and 5.2%?
Active 1mo ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$310.00
fee: $9.70
china-gdp
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 5.2% and 5.5%?
—
—
$60.00
fee: $2.77
Active
1mo ago
china-gdp
Active
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 5.2% and 5.5%?
Active 1mo ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$60.00
fee: $2.77
trump-agree-iran
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?
+$20.05
+1.8%
$2.15K
No
1mo ago
trump-agree-iran
No
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
+$20.05
ROI
+1.8%
Volume
$2.15K
who-trump-insult
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by May 31, 2026?
+$29.98
+1.7%
$1.77K
fee: $1.23
No
1mo ago
who-trump-insult
No
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by May 31, 2026?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
+$29.98
ROI
+1.7%
Volume
$1.77K
fee: $1.23
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
+$78.43
+4.9%
$1.61K
No
1mo ago
No
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
+$78.43
ROI
+4.9%
Volume
$1.61K
who-trump-insult
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Melania Trump by May 31, 2026?
+$7.10
+1.1%
$639.00
fee: $0.29
No
1mo ago
who-trump-insult
No
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Melania Trump by May 31, 2026?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
+$7.10
ROI
+1.1%
Volume
$639.00
fee: $0.29
hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
+$97.09
+3.7%
$4.31K
No
1mo ago
hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal
No
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
+$97.09
ROI
+3.7%
Volume
$4.31K
Will Trump announce a Taiwan arms sales halt?
-$188.84
-16.4%
$2.12K
fee: $4.05
Yes
1mo ago
Yes
Will Trump announce a Taiwan arms sales halt?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
-$188.84
ROI
-16.4%
Volume
$2.12K
fee: $4.05
71 Markets
•
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