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PolyPnL
Leaderboard
Mempool
A live demo site
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PolyEdge Engine
de
Tier 0
Weighted Vol:
$10.03
derangedCapitalist
derangedCapit...
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Created
October 19, 2024
Active
September 15, 2026
Balance
$156.23
Incoming
+$838.28
Rewards
+$0.02
Outgoing
-$0.00
PnL Over Time
Cumulative PnL
-$120.19
1D
3D
7D
30D
All
Aug 17
Aug 24
Sep 1
Sep 8
Sep 16
Top Categories
Last 30 Days
Geopolitics
-$3.91
WR: 40.0%
(2/5)
ROI: -4.1%
Economy
-$9.90
WR: 0.0%
(0/1)
ROI: -16.2%
Politics
-$17.81
WR: 20.0%
(1/5)
ROI: -12.7%
Finance
-$106.38
WR: 12.5%
(1/8)
ROI: -75.1%
Trading Style
Last 30 Days
Maker Volume
$494.99
89.7%
Taker Volume
$56.96
10.3%
Taker Ratio
10%
Performance Snapshot
24 Hours
Net PnL
-$9.90
ROI
-16.2%
Win Rate
0.0%
Volume
$112.50
Fee
$0.00
0 Wins in 1 Markets
3 Days
Net PnL
-$9.90
ROI
-16.2%
Win Rate
0.0%
Volume
$112.50
Fee
$0.00
0 Wins in 1 Markets
7 Days
Net PnL
-$53.59
ROI
-24.5%
Win Rate
37.5%
Volume
$395.49
Fee
$0.03
3 Wins in 8 Markets
30 Days
Net PnL
-$120.19
ROI
-40.2%
Win Rate
21.4%
Volume
$551.95
Fee
$0.76
3 Wins in 14 Markets
Recent Markets
| total 67
Market
PnL
ROI
Volume
Status
fomc
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
-$9.90
-16.2%
$112.50
Active
19h ago
fomc
Active
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
Active 19h ago
PnL
-$9.90
ROI
-16.2%
Volume
$112.50
anthropic-valuation
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?
-$17.30
-40.6%
$67.90
Active
4d ago
anthropic-valuation
Active
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?
Active 4d ago
PnL
-$17.30
ROI
-40.6%
Volume
$67.90
anthropic-valuation
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?
-$23.66
-74.8%
$39.57
Active
5d ago
anthropic-valuation
Active
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?
Active 5d ago
PnL
-$23.66
ROI
-74.8%
Volume
$39.57
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?
-$0.30
-1.4%
$41.88
Active
5d ago
Active
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?
Active 5d ago
PnL
-$0.30
ROI
-1.4%
Volume
$41.88
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
-$13.10
-59.5%
$30.90
Active
5d ago
Active
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
Active 5d ago
PnL
-$13.10
ROI
-59.5%
Volume
$30.90
hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
+$6.49
+28.2%
$52.49
Active
5d ago
hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal
Active
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
Active 5d ago
PnL
+$6.49
ROI
+28.2%
Volume
$52.49
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?
+$4.00
+23.5%
$37.99
Active
5d ago
Active
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?
Active 5d ago
PnL
+$4.00
ROI
+23.5%
Volume
$37.99
anthropic-ipo
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day?
+$0.19
+32.2%
$12.26
fee: $0.03
Active
5d ago
anthropic-ipo
Active
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day?
Active 5d ago
PnL
+$0.19
ROI
+32.2%
Volume
$12.26
fee: $0.03
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
-$1.00
-7.7%
$25.00
fee: $0.45
Active
11d ago
Active
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Active 11d ago
PnL
-$1.00
ROI
-7.7%
Volume
$25.00
fee: $0.45
crude-oil-cl-hit
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in September?
—
—
$19.20
Active
12d ago
crude-oil-cl-hit
Active
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in September?
Active 12d ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$19.20
crude-oil-cl-hit
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?
-$18.88
-101.5%
$18.60
fee: $0.28
Yes
14d ago
crude-oil-cl-hit
Yes
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?
Settled 5d ago
PnL
-$18.88
ROI
-101.5%
Volume
$18.60
fee: $0.28
crude-oil-cl-hit
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in September?
-$21.00
-100.0%
$21.00
Yes
15d ago
crude-oil-cl-hit
Yes
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in September?
Settled 14d ago
PnL
-$21.00
ROI
-100.0%
Volume
$21.00
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?
-$25.72
-94.6%
$28.68
No
15d ago
No
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?
Settled 15d ago
PnL
-$25.72
ROI
-94.6%
Volume
$28.68
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?
—
—
$43.98
Active
22d ago
Active
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?
Active 22d ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$43.98
hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
+$41.05
+134.6%
$102.05
Active
1mo ago
hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal
Active
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Active 1mo ago
PnL
+$41.05
ROI
+134.6%
Volume
$102.05
crude-oil-cl-hit
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?
+$11.40
+83.8%
$13.60
Yes
1mo ago
crude-oil-cl-hit
Yes
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?
Settled 29d ago
PnL
+$11.40
ROI
+83.8%
Volume
$13.60
P
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
-$34.10
-82.0%
$49.10
Yes
1mo ago
P
Yes
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
-$34.10
ROI
-82.0%
Volume
$49.10
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
—
—
$0.75
Active
1mo ago
Active
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Active 1mo ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$0.75
us-to-invade-iran
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
+$12.80
+19.4%
$145.00
Active
1mo ago
us-to-invade-iran
Active
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Active 1mo ago
PnL
+$12.80
ROI
+19.4%
Volume
$145.00
crude-oil-cl-hit
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?
-$1.89
-7.9%
$47.10
fee: $0.99
Yes
1mo ago
crude-oil-cl-hit
Yes
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
-$1.89
ROI
-7.9%
Volume
$47.10
fee: $0.99
P
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?
-$24.50
-100.0%
$24.50
Yes
1mo ago
P
Yes
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?
Settled 28d ago
PnL
-$24.50
ROI
-100.0%
Volume
$24.50
P
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?
-$55.50
-63.6%
$119.10
Yes
1mo ago
P
Yes
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
-$55.50
ROI
-63.6%
Volume
$119.10
P
anthropic-valuation
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.15T by July 31?
-$25.02
-35.7%
$115.36
fee: $0.41
No
1mo ago
P
anthropic-valuation
No
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.15T by July 31?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
-$25.02
ROI
-35.7%
Volume
$115.36
fee: $0.41
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
-$0.60
-4.0%
$29.60
Active
1mo ago
Active
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Active 1mo ago
PnL
-$0.60
ROI
-4.0%
Volume
$29.60
crude-oil-cl-hit
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?
-$31.86
-102.8%
$31.00
fee: $0.86
Yes
1mo ago
crude-oil-cl-hit
Yes
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
-$31.86
ROI
-102.8%
Volume
$31.00
fee: $0.86
hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
+$107.88
+108.9%
$306.06
No
1mo ago
hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal
No
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
+$107.88
ROI
+108.9%
Volume
$306.06
P
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?
-$25.99
-100.0%
$25.99
Yes
2mo ago
P
Yes
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
-$25.99
ROI
-100.0%
Volume
$25.99
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
+$20.00
+100.0%
$60.00
fee: $0.28
Active
2mo ago
Active
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
Active 2mo ago
PnL
+$20.00
ROI
+100.0%
Volume
$60.00
fee: $0.28
crude-oil-cl-hit
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?
-$5.00
-26.3%
$33.00
No
2mo ago
crude-oil-cl-hit
No
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
-$5.00
ROI
-26.3%
Volume
$33.00
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
—
—
$4.70
Active
2mo ago
Active
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Active 2mo ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$4.70
crude-oil-cl-hit
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?
+$57.00
+132.6%
$43.00
Yes
2mo ago
crude-oil-cl-hit
Yes
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
+$57.00
ROI
+132.6%
Volume
$43.00
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?
—
—
$22.00
Active
2mo ago
Active
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?
Active 2mo ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$22.00
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?
-$6.50
-43.3%
$35.79
fee: $0.31
Active
2mo ago
Active
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?
Active 2mo ago
PnL
-$6.50
ROI
-43.3%
Volume
$35.79
fee: $0.31
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
+$4.20
+127.3%
$10.80
No
2mo ago
No
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
+$4.20
ROI
+127.3%
Volume
$10.80
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
+$3.00
+66.7%
$12.00
No
2mo ago
No
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
+$3.00
ROI
+66.7%
Volume
$12.00
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
+$6.60
+183.2%
$14.10
fee: $0.30
No
2mo ago
No
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
+$6.60
ROI
+183.2%
Volume
$14.10
fee: $0.30
hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
+$69.72
+114.9%
$191.12
No
2mo ago
hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal
No
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
+$69.72
ROI
+114.9%
Volume
$191.12
crude-oil-cl-above
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2026?
-$27.80
-99.3%
$28.21
fee: $0.01
No
2mo ago
crude-oil-cl-above
No
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2026?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
-$27.80
ROI
-99.3%
Volume
$28.21
fee: $0.01
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?
-$10.65
-9.6%
$11.79
fee: $0.44
No
2mo ago
No
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
-$10.65
ROI
-9.6%
Volume
$11.79
fee: $0.44
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?
-$59.25
-100.3%
$59.34
fee: $0.39
No
2mo ago
No
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
-$59.25
ROI
-100.3%
Volume
$59.34
fee: $0.39
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?
-$20.63
-99.1%
$21.03
fee: $0.01
No
2mo ago
No
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
-$20.63
ROI
-99.1%
Volume
$21.03
fee: $0.01
crude-oil-cl-above
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $85 on the final trading day of June 2026?
-$26.92
-97.9%
$28.10
fee: $0.02
No
2mo ago
crude-oil-cl-above
No
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $85 on the final trading day of June 2026?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
-$26.92
ROI
-97.9%
Volume
$28.10
fee: $0.02
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?
-$25.24
-20.2%
$26.42
fee: $0.66
No
2mo ago
No
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
-$25.24
ROI
-20.2%
Volume
$26.42
fee: $0.66
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?
-$121.88
-99.8%
$122.82
fee: $0.50
No
2mo ago
No
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
-$121.88
ROI
-99.8%
Volume
$122.82
fee: $0.50
crude-oil-cl-hit
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June?
-$8.80
-100.0%
$8.80
Yes
3mo ago
crude-oil-cl-hit
Yes
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June?
Settled 3mo ago
PnL
-$8.80
ROI
-100.0%
Volume
$8.80
crude-oil-cl-hit
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June?
-$2.28
-103.6%
$2.20
fee: $0.08
Yes
3mo ago
crude-oil-cl-hit
Yes
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June?
Settled 3mo ago
PnL
-$2.28
ROI
-103.6%
Volume
$2.20
fee: $0.08
nuclear-deal
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
-$64.70
-100.0%
$64.70
Yes
3mo ago
nuclear-deal
Yes
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Settled 3mo ago
PnL
-$64.70
ROI
-100.0%
Volume
$64.70
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17?
-$20.80
-100.0%
$20.80
Yes
3mo ago
Yes
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17?
Settled 3mo ago
PnL
-$20.80
ROI
-100.0%
Volume
$20.80
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
-$62.29
-100.0%
$62.29
Yes
3mo ago
Yes
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Settled 3mo ago
PnL
-$62.29
ROI
-100.0%
Volume
$62.29
mythos-released
Will Claude Mythos be released on June 10?
+$14.00
+53.8%
$26.00
No
3mo ago
mythos-released
No
Will Claude Mythos be released on June 10?
Settled 3mo ago
PnL
+$14.00
ROI
+53.8%
Volume
$26.00
mythos-released
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9?
-$32.31
-102.3%
$31.58
fee: $0.73
Yes
3mo ago
mythos-released
Yes
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9?
Settled 3mo ago
PnL
-$32.31
ROI
-102.3%
Volume
$31.58
fee: $0.73
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
-$5.00
-100.0%
$5.00
Yes
3mo ago
Yes
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
-$5.00
ROI
-100.0%
Volume
$5.00
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30?
-$21.69
-100.0%
$21.69
Yes
3mo ago
Yes
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30?
Settled 3mo ago
PnL
-$21.69
ROI
-100.0%
Volume
$21.69
P
israel-x-lebanon-diplomatic-meeting
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?
-$4.97
-100.0%
$4.97
Yes
3mo ago
P
israel-x-lebanon-diplomatic-meeting
Yes
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?
Settled 3mo ago
PnL
-$4.97
ROI
-100.0%
Volume
$4.97
P
israel-x-lebanon-diplomatic-meeting
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?
-$3.00
-100.0%
$3.00
Yes
3mo ago
P
israel-x-lebanon-diplomatic-meeting
Yes
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?
Settled 3mo ago
PnL
-$3.00
ROI
-100.0%
Volume
$3.00
nuclear-deal
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?
-$49.00
-100.0%
$49.00
Yes
3mo ago
nuclear-deal
Yes
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?
Settled 3mo ago
PnL
-$49.00
ROI
-100.0%
Volume
$49.00
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
-$43.90
-100.0%
$43.90
Yes
3mo ago
Yes
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Settled 3mo ago
PnL
-$43.90
ROI
-100.0%
Volume
$43.90
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
+$44.00
+78.6%
$56.00
No
3mo ago
No
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
Settled 3mo ago
PnL
+$44.00
ROI
+78.6%
Volume
$56.00
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
+$38.11
+52.6%
$72.50
No
3mo ago
No
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Settled 3mo ago
PnL
+$38.11
ROI
+52.6%
Volume
$72.50
hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
+$9.36
+31.2%
$69.36
No
3mo ago
hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal
No
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Settled 3mo ago
PnL
+$9.36
ROI
+31.2%
Volume
$69.36
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?
-$64.00
-100.9%
$63.40
fee: $0.60
Yes
3mo ago
Yes
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?
Settled 3mo ago
PnL
-$64.00
ROI
-100.9%
Volume
$63.40
fee: $0.60
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?
+$15.60
+69.6%
$60.40
No
3mo ago
No
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?
Settled 3mo ago
PnL
+$15.60
ROI
+69.6%
Volume
$60.40
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?
-$28.60
-100.3%
$28.53
fee: $0.07
Yes
3mo ago
Yes
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?
Settled 3mo ago
PnL
-$28.60
ROI
-100.3%
Volume
$28.53
fee: $0.07
crude-oil-cl-hit
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?
+$9.68
+24.2%
$40.00
fee: $0.32
No
3mo ago
crude-oil-cl-hit
No
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?
Settled 3mo ago
PnL
+$9.68
ROI
+24.2%
Volume
$40.00
fee: $0.32
ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?
-$9.10
-100.0%
$9.10
No
3mo ago
ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz
No
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?
Settled 3mo ago
PnL
-$9.10
ROI
-100.0%
Volume
$9.10
ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?
-$15.60
-100.0%
$15.60
No
3mo ago
ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz
No
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?
Settled 3mo ago
PnL
-$15.60
ROI
-100.0%
Volume
$15.60
crude-oil-cl-hit
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?
+$28.00
+53.8%
$52.00
Yes
4mo ago
crude-oil-cl-hit
Yes
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?
Settled 4mo ago
PnL
+$28.00
ROI
+53.8%
Volume
$52.00
67 Markets