ma

manicweather

View on Polymarket
Created April 28, 2026
Active October 1, 2026
Balance$2.44K

PnL Over Time

Cumulative PnL-$549.51
Sep 2
Sep 10
Sep 17
Sep 25
Oct 2

Top Categories

Last 30 Days
Finance-$0.30
WR: 26.7%(4/15)
ROI: -0.2%
LoL-$4.75
WR: 0.0%(0/2)
ROI: -8.3%
Geopolitics-$6.58
WR: 13.3%(2/15)
ROI: -3.6%
Esports-$6.61
WR: 0.0%(0/4)
ROI: -8.6%
Weather-$17.23
WR: 11.1%(2/18)
ROI: -7.7%

Trading Style

Last 30 Days
Maker Volume$4.42K
56.1%
Taker Volume$3.47K
43.9%

Performance Snapshot

24 Hours

Net PnL

+$0.00

ROI

0.0%

Win Rate

0.0%

Volume

$0.00

Fee

$0.00

0 Wins in 0 Markets

3 Days

Net PnL

-$34.52

ROI

-10.1%

Win Rate

8.0%

Volume

$770.81

Fee

$4.87

2 Wins in 25 Markets

7 Days

Net PnL

-$89.16

ROI

-8.9%

Win Rate

12.9%

Volume

$2.23K

Fee

$14.13

9 Wins in 70 Markets

30 Days

Net PnL

-$549.51

ROI

-14.9%

Win Rate

12.3%

Volume

$7.89K

Fee

$57.26

31 Wins in 253 Markets

Recent Markets | total 598
2-ai-model-style-control-on
Active
Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?
Active 1d ago
PnL-$2.76
ROI-15.8%
Volumefee: $0.40
next-google-gemini-pro-model-released-on
Active
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026?
Active 1d ago
PnL—
ROI—
Volume
central-bank-of-colombia-decision
Active
Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the October meeting?
Active 1d ago
PnL-$0.23
ROI-1.9%
Volumefee: $0.29
best-ai-model
Active
Will any other model be the best AI model on October 12, 2026?
Active 1d ago
PnL-$1.40
ROI-53.8%
Volumefee: $0.05
gdp-quarterly
Active
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?
Active 1d ago
PnL-$0.64
ROI-7.8%
Volumefee: $0.24
Active
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between September 28 and October 4, 2026?
Active 1d ago
PnL+$0.23
ROI+0.6%
Volume
openrouter-ai-market-share
Active
Will DeepSeek have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 28?
Active 1d ago
PnL—
ROI—
Volumefee: $0.08
P
box-office-openings
Active
Will "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 21m?
Active 1d ago
PnL-$1.15
ROI-35.7%
Volumefee: $0.09
Active
Will Rachel peak at Category 3?
Active 1d ago
PnL-$1.55
ROI-12.9%
Volumefee: $0.24
P
Active
Will Solary win WSCI 2026?
Active 2d ago
PnL-$1.15
ROI-2.6%
Volumefee: $0.27
us-annual-inflation
Active
Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September?
Active 2d ago
PnL-$1.61
ROI-6.5%
Volumefee: $0.57
openrouter-ai-market-share
Active
Will OpenAI have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 28?
Active 2d ago
PnL+$0.20
ROI+1.3%
Volume
Active
Will Rachel peak at Category 4?
Active 2d ago
PnL-$1.77
ROI-10.1%
Volumefee: $0.22
best-ai-model
Active
Will claude-opus-5.5-high be the best AI model on October 12, 2026?
Active 2d ago
PnL-$2.53
ROI-11.5%
Volumefee: $0.20
egg-prices-monthly
Active
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.10 and $2.20 in September?
Active 2d ago
PnL-$2.43
ROI-16.0%
Volumefee: $0.28
Active
Will Rachel peak at Category 2?
Active 2d ago
PnL-$2.76
ROI-28.6%
Volumefee: $0.24
P
reserve-bank-of-new-zealand-decision
Active
Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?
Active 2d ago
PnL-$1.08
ROI-6.5%
Volumefee: $0.25
P
mrbeast-views-week-1
Active
Will MrBeast's next video get at least 100 million views on week 1?
Active 2d ago
PnL—
ROI—
Volumefee: $0.25
P
mrbeast-views-week-1
Active
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?
Active 2d ago
PnL-$1.15
ROI-29.4%
Volumefee: $0.12
P
mrbeast-views-day-1
Active
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?
Active 2d ago
PnL-$1.38
ROI-8.1%
Volumefee: $0.25
P
mrbeast-views-week-1
Active
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?
Active 2d ago
PnL-$0.23
ROI-2.9%
Volumefee: $0.25
ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz
Active
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?
Active 2d ago
PnL-$0.05
ROI-1.4%
Volume
P
median-home-price-sf
Yes
Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be less than $1,176,000 on September 30?
Settled 1d ago
PnL-$6.25
ROI-42.5%
Volumefee: $0.27
openrouter-ai-market-share
Active
Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 28?
Active 2d ago
PnL-$2.76
ROI-41.4%
Volumefee: $0.13
P
mrbeast-views-week-1
Active
Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week 1?
Active 2d ago
PnL-$2.07
ROI-36.0%
Volumefee: $0.15
P
mrbeast-gaming-views
Active
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 25 and 30 million views in week 1?
Active 3d ago
PnL—
ROI—
Volume
P
mrbeast-views-day-1
Active
Will MrBeast's next video get at least 45 million views on day 1?
Active 3d ago
PnL-$1.15
ROI-20.0%
Volumefee: $0.18
openrouter-ai-market-share
Active
Will DeepSeek have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 28?
Active 3d ago
PnL—
ROI—
Volumefee: $0.14
us-monthly-inflation
Active
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September?
Active 3d ago
PnL-$0.92
ROI-4.6%
Volumefee: $0.55
P
median-home-price-chicago
Yes
Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $340,000 and $345,000 on September 30?
Settled 1d ago
PnL+$0.55
ROI+16.3%
Volume
openrouter-ai-market-share
Active
Will Google have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 28?
Active 3d ago
PnL-$3.68
ROI-48.5%
Volumefee: $0.13
ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz
Active
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?
Active 3d ago
PnL-$0.23
ROI-1.1%
Volume
Active
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 12 and October 18, 2026?
Active 3d ago
PnL-$3.48
ROI-7.1%
Volumefee: $0.84
P
box-office-openings
Active
Will "Verity" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 28m?
Active 3d ago
PnL-$0.58
ROI-1.8%
Volumefee: $0.72
P
Active
Will Nolo peak at Category 4?
Active 3d ago
PnL+$0.23
ROI+0.5%
Volume
P
1-free-app
Active
Will Muse from Meta be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 2?
Active 3d ago
PnL—
ROI—
Volume
P
2-us-spotify-song
Active
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #2 US song this week?
Active 4d ago
PnL-$0.29
ROI-1.7%
Volumefee: $0.07
P
1-spotify-song
Active
Will "BbY WOW - KAROL G, Judeline, rusowsky" be the #1 song this week?
Active 4d ago
PnL+$0.03
ROI+0.1%
Volume
P
2-spotify-song
Active
Will "Patient Zero - Taylor Swift" be the #2 song this week?
Active 4d ago
PnL-$2.99
ROI-22.3%
Volumefee: $0.28
P
billboard-2-song
Active
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of October 10?
Active 4d ago
PnL-$2.40
ROI-19.0%
Volumefee: $0.25
inflation-argentina-monthly
Active
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in September 2026 be between 1.6% and 1.8%?
Active 4d ago
PnL-$2.67
ROI-17.1%
Volumefee: $0.22
P
Active
Will Nolo peak at Category 3?
Active 4d ago
PnL-$0.23
ROI-3.3%
Volumefee: $0.24
P
Active
Will T1 Esports Academy win WSCI 2026?
Active 4d ago
PnL-$3.60
ROI-29.5%
Volumefee: $0.25
P
2-us-spotify-song
Active
Will "Cleveland! - Taylor Swift" be the #2 US song this week?
Active 4d ago
PnL—
ROI—
Volumefee: $0.18
tesla-deliveries
Active
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q3 2026
Active 4d ago
PnL-$2.07
ROI-20.0%
Volumefee: $0.21
P
median-home-price-sf
No
Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,176,000 and $1,198,000 on September 30?
Settled 1d ago
PnL-$3.40
ROI-10.7%
Volumefee: $0.78
jobs-added
Active
Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in September?
Active 5d ago
PnL-$2.99
ROI-34.2%
Volumefee: $0.22
P
2-spotify-song
Active
Will "BbY WOW - KAROL G, Judeline, rusowsky" be the #2 song this week?
Active 5d ago
PnL-$2.53
ROI-30.6%
Volumefee: $0.22
claude-sonnet-released
No
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on September 29, 2026?
Settled 3d ago
PnL-$3.91
ROI-23.9%
Volumefee: $0.23
third-best-ai-company
No
Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?
Settled 1d ago
PnL-$0.58
ROI-1.8%
Volumefee: $0.39
P
mrbeast-gaming-views
Active
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 45 and 50 million views in week 1?
Active 5d ago
PnL+$0.20
ROI+1.4%
Volumefee: $0.19
egg-prices-monthly
Active
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.20 and $2.30 in September?
Active 5d ago
PnL-$0.22
ROI-2.0%
Volumefee: $0.27
P
mrbeast-gaming-views
Active
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 30 and 35 million views in week 1?
Active 5d ago
PnL-$1.15
ROI-31.3%
Volumefee: $0.11
P
Active
Will a team from Americas win VALORANT Champions 2026?
Active 5d ago
PnL-$1.84
ROI-10.7%
Volumefee: $0.25
jobs-added
Active
Will the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in September?
Active 6d ago
PnL—
ROI—
Volumefee: $0.28
third-best-ai-company
Yes
Will Xiaomi be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?
Settled 1d ago
PnL-$1.11
ROI-6.4%
Volumefee: $0.21
inflation-argentina-monthly
Active
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in September 2026 be between 1.9% and 2.1%?
Active 6d ago
PnL-$2.44
ROI-15.6%
Volumefee: $0.28
P
1-paid-app
Active
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 2?
Active 6d ago
PnL-$2.76
ROI-60.0%
Volumefee: $0.08
P
1-spotify-song
Active
Will "Patient Zero - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song this week?
Active 6d ago
PnL-$1.33
ROI-72.5%
Volumefee: $0.02
chinese-ai-2
Yes
Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?
Settled 1d ago
PnL+$0.15
ROI+1.7%
Volume
chatgpt-outage-days
Active
Will there be exactly 3 ChatGPT outages in September 2026?
Active 6d ago
PnL—
ROI—
Volume
P
median-home-price-la
Yes
Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be between $1,153,000 and $1,169,000 on September 30?
Settled 1d ago
PnL-$2.68
ROI-9.2%
Volumefee: $0.54
5-5-earthquake
Active
Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?
Active 6d ago
PnL—
ROI—
Volumefee: $0.06
1-us-netflix-movie
No
Will "The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare" be the top US Netflix movie this week?
Settled 2d ago
PnL-$0.10
ROI-3.1%
Volume
top-netflix-movie-week
No
Will "Best of the Best" be the top global Netflix movie this week?
Settled 2d ago
PnL-$0.13
ROI-3.2%
Volumefee: $0.10
Yes
Will no Atlantic hurricane form in September 2026?
Settled 23h ago
PnL-$0.33
ROI-13.2%
Volumefee: $0.10
top-netflix-movie-week
Yes
Will "Unabomber" be the top global Netflix movie this week?
Settled 2d ago
PnL+$0.10
ROI+0.6%
Volumefee: $0.10
ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz
Active
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?
Active 6d ago
PnL-$0.05
ROI-2.9%
Volume
P
median-home-price-chicago
No
Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $335,000 and $340,000 on September 30?
Settled 1d ago
PnL-$4.25
ROI-16.1%
Volumefee: $0.57
1-us-netflix-movie
Yes
Will "Unabomber" be the top US Netflix movie this week?
Settled 2d ago
PnL+$0.20
ROI+3.4%
Volume
third-best-ai-agent-lab
No
Will Moonshot be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026?
Settled 1d ago
PnL-$4.76
ROI-21.6%
Volumefee: $0.40
north-korea-missile-test
Yes
Will there be exactly 2 North Korea tests in September 2026?
Settled 1d ago
PnL-$0.50
ROI-2.4%
Volume
openrouter-ai-market-share
Yes
Will OpenAI have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 21?
Settled 4d ago
PnL-$2.27
ROI-23.5%
Volumefee: $0.20
openrouter-ai-market-share
No
Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 21?
Settled 4d ago
PnL-$6.21
ROI-100.0%
Volume
weekly-total-bab-el-mandeb-strait
Active
Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 28-October 4?
Active 7d ago
PnL-$0.23
ROI-1.5%
Volume
longest-github-critical-incident
Yes
Will GitHub's longest critical incident in September 2026 be between 1 and 3 hours?
Settled 1d ago
PnL-$7.46
ROI-29.9%
Volumefee: $0.50
P
No
Will “Dream” by Lisa featuring Kentaro Sakaguchi win Best K-Pop at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?
Settled 4d ago
PnL+$1.60
ROI+66.7%
Volume
Yes
Will Rick Devens win Big Brother season 28?
Settled 7h ago
PnL-$0.94
ROI-5.0%
Volumefee: $0.52
P
No
Will “Bring Your Love” by Madonna and Sabrina Carpenter win Song of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?
Settled 4d ago
PnL-$1.14
ROI-6.2%
Volumefee: $0.22
P
Yes
Will “I Just Might” by Bruno Mars win Best R&B at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?
Settled 4d ago
PnL+$0.23
ROI+2.1%
Volume
P
Yes
Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during their summit?
Settled 6d ago
PnL-$0.32
ROI-4.7%
Volumefee: $0.19
monthly-precipitation
No
Will Seattle have between 1 and 1.5 inches of precipitation in September?
Settled 20h ago
PnL-$8.30
ROI-27.5%
Volumefee: $0.33
chinese-ai-2
No
Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?
Settled 1d ago
PnL—
ROI—
Volume
P
Yes
Will “Nuevayol” by Bad Bunny win Best Latin at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?
Settled 4d ago
PnL-$0.51
ROI-1.2%
Volumefee: $0.28
P
No
Will “Stateside + Zara Larsson” by PinkPantheress win Best Dance at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?
Settled 4d ago
PnL-$0.06
ROI-0.1%
Volumefee: $0.29
ppi-yoy
Active
Will PPI YoY be 5.9% or more in September?
Active 8d ago
PnL-$0.03
ROI-0.3%
Volumefee: $0.28
P
mrbeast-gaming-views
Active
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 40 and 45 million views in week 1?
Active 8d ago
PnL-$2.76
ROI-14.3%
Volumefee: $0.23
P
box-office-openings
Active
Will "Digger" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 17m?
Active 8d ago
PnL+$0.20
ROI+0.9%
Volumefee: $0.69
1-us-netflix-show
Yes
Will "Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story: Season 1" be the top US Netflix show this week?
Settled 2d ago
PnL+$0.02
ROI+0.1%
Volume
P
mrbeast-gaming-views
Active
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 35 and 40 million views in week 1?
Active 8d ago
PnL—
ROI—
Volume
chatgpt-outage-days
Active
Will there be exactly 4 ChatGPT outages in September 2026?
Active 8d ago
PnL-$0.56
ROI-30.9%
Volumefee: $0.04
P
rtx-5090-rental-price
No
Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.55 and $0.60 on September 30, 2026?
Settled 14h ago
PnL-$0.03
ROI-0.2%
Volumefee: $0.12
P
No
Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 6–10 seconds during their summit?
Settled 6d ago
PnL-$0.71
ROI-6.1%
Volumefee: $0.32
elon-net-worth
No
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $800B and $900B on September 30?
Settled 1d ago
PnL+$3.45
ROI+17.6%
Volume
chatgpt-outage-days
Active
Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in September 2026?
Active 8d ago
PnL-$0.69
ROI-6.8%
Volumefee: $0.22
P
bonbast
Active
Will USD be less than 2.2M Iranian rials on September 30?
Active 8d ago
PnL-$1.15
ROI-50.0%
Volumefee: $0.05
ism-manufacturing-pmi
Yes
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in September?
Settled 20h ago
PnL-$0.20
ROI-3.6%
Volumefee: $0.20
No
Will Drew Campbell win Big Brother season 28?
Settled 7h ago
PnL-$1.95
ROI-8.6%
Volumefee: $0.68
core-pce-yoy
No
Will Core PCE YoY be 3.1% in August?
Settled 1d ago
PnL-$3.00
ROI-15.7%
Volumefee: $0.24
jolts
No
Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.1M and 7.2M in August?
Settled 2d ago
PnL-$0.96
ROI-100.0%
Volume
598 Markets
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