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PolyPnL
Leaderboard
Stats
NEW
Monitoring real-time mempool whale trades...
Tier 0
Weighted Vol:
$0.67
Ogre-Magi
Ogre-Magi
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Created
January 7, 2026
Active
October 29, 2026
Balance
$5.02K
Incoming
+$3.69K
Rewards
+$41.48
Outgoing
-$4.40K
PnL Over Time
Cumulative PnL
+$837.71
1D
3D
7D
30D
All
Oct 11
Oct 18
Oct 26
Nov 2
Nov 10
Top Categories
Last 30 Days
Economy
+$833.21
WR: 100.0%
(1/1)
ROI: +40.7%
Geopolitics
+$772.42
WR: 57.1%
(4/7)
ROI: +29.4%
Politics
+$769.41
WR: 50.0%
(2/4)
ROI: +29.7%
Tech
+$34.84
WR: 100.0%
(4/4)
ROI: +17.5%
Crypto
+$30.45
WR: 100.0%
(1/1)
ROI: +82.7%
Trading Style
Last 30 Days
Maker Volume
$3.12K
45.4%
Taker Volume
$3.75K
54.6%
Taker Ratio
55%
Performance Snapshot
Overview
PnL Calendar
24 Hours
Net PnL
+$0.00
Rebate:
$0.00
ROI
0.0%
Win Rate
0.0%
Volume
$0.00
Fee
$0.00
0 Wins in 0 Markets
3 Days
Net PnL
+$0.00
Rebate:
$0.00
ROI
0.0%
Win Rate
0.0%
Volume
$0.00
Fee
$0.00
0 Wins in 0 Markets
7 Days
Net PnL
+$0.00
Rebate:
$0.00
ROI
0.0%
Win Rate
0.0%
Volume
$0.00
Fee
$0.00
0 Wins in 0 Markets
30 Days
Net PnL
+$837.71
Rebate:
$0.00
ROI
29.3%
Win Rate
75.0%
Volume
$6.87K
Fee
$1.70
9 Wins in 12 Markets
Recent Markets
| total 260
Market
PnL
ROI
Volume
Status
hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
+$833.21
+40.7%
$5.32K
Active
12d ago
hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal
Active
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Active 12d ago
PnL
+$833.21
ROI
+40.7%
Volume
$5.32K
best-ai-company
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
+$1.10
+157.1%
$84.49
Active
12d ago
best-ai-company
Active
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Active 12d ago
PnL
+$1.10
ROI
+157.1%
Volume
$84.49
us-iran-ceasefire-continues
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?
+$0.91
+0.9%
$206.19
No
18d ago
us-iran-ceasefire-continues
No
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?
Settled 6d ago
PnL
+$0.91
ROI
+0.9%
Volume
$206.19
us-iran-ceasefire-continues
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?
-$45.95
-39.7%
$185.37
Yes
18d ago
us-iran-ceasefire-continues
Yes
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?
Settled 14d ago
PnL
-$45.95
ROI
-39.7%
Volume
$185.37
P
us-iran-ceasefire-continues
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
-$18.76
-5.9%
$625.52
Yes
19d ago
P
us-iran-ceasefire-continues
Yes
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
Settled 3d ago
PnL
-$18.76
ROI
-5.9%
Volume
$625.52
ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18?
-$2.04
-100.0%
$2.04
Yes
20d ago
ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz
Yes
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18?
Settled 18d ago
PnL
-$2.04
ROI
-100.0%
Volume
$2.04
best-ai-company
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
+$19.12
+12.5%
$326.32
fee: $1.32
Yes
21d ago
best-ai-company
Yes
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
Settled 9d ago
PnL
+$19.12
ROI
+12.5%
Volume
$326.32
fee: $1.32
P
strc-hits-100-by
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?
+$30.45
+82.7%
$40.91
Yes
21d ago
P
strc-hits-100-by
Yes
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?
Settled 5d ago
PnL
+$30.45
ROI
+82.7%
Volume
$40.91
ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz
Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18?
+$2.60
+11.3%
$23.04
No
22d ago
ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz
No
Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18?
Settled 18d ago
PnL
+$2.60
ROI
+11.3%
Volume
$23.04
Gemini 4.0 released by October 23, 2026?
+$1.40
+10.4%
$13.39
fee: $0.02
Yes
27d ago
Yes
Gemini 4.0 released by October 23, 2026?
Settled 27d ago
PnL
+$1.40
ROI
+10.4%
Volume
$13.39
fee: $0.02
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?
+$13.22
+41.6%
$31.82
fee: $0.35
Yes
27d ago
Yes
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?
Settled 27d ago
PnL
+$13.22
ROI
+41.6%
Volume
$31.82
fee: $0.35
ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?
+$2.46
+18.1%
$13.54
No
29d ago
ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz
No
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?
Settled 26d ago
PnL
+$2.46
ROI
+18.1%
Volume
$13.54
ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?
-$11.59
-100.0%
$11.59
Yes
1mo ago
ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz
Yes
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
-$11.59
ROI
-100.0%
Volume
$11.59
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by September 30?
+$2.39
+14.9%
$15.97
No
1mo ago
No
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by September 30?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
+$2.39
ROI
+14.9%
Volume
$15.97
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?
-$3.07
-3.8%
$96.89
fee: $0.61
No
1mo ago
No
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
-$3.07
ROI
-3.8%
Volume
$96.89
fee: $0.61
best-ai-company
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?
-$1.01
-100.0%
$1.01
No
1mo ago
best-ai-company
No
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
-$1.01
ROI
-100.0%
Volume
$1.01
best-ai-company
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?
-$0.45
-100.0%
$0.45
Yes
1mo ago
best-ai-company
Yes
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
-$0.45
ROI
-100.0%
Volume
$0.45
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by October 31?
+$13.57
+325.5%
$4.17
Yes
1mo ago
Yes
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by October 31?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
+$13.57
ROI
+325.5%
Volume
$4.17
ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?
+$11.62
+55.9%
$20.79
No
1mo ago
ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz
No
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
+$11.62
ROI
+55.9%
Volume
$20.79
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?
-$33.18
-100.0%
$33.18
No
1mo ago
No
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?
Settled 1d ago
PnL
-$33.18
ROI
-100.0%
Volume
$33.18
claude-opus-released
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 24, 2026?
-$13.35
-102.1%
$13.08
fee: $0.27
Yes
1mo ago
claude-opus-released
Yes
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 24, 2026?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
-$13.35
ROI
-102.1%
Volume
$13.08
fee: $0.27
max-chatbot-arena
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?
-$30.77
-3.6%
$1.17K
fee: $0.93
Yes
1mo ago
max-chatbot-arena
Yes
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
-$30.77
ROI
-3.6%
Volume
$1.17K
fee: $0.93
ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13?
+$25.00
+39.1%
$63.96
No
1mo ago
ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz
No
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
+$25.00
ROI
+39.1%
Volume
$63.96
ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz
Will 40 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13?
-$0.17
-2.1%
$16.08
No
1mo ago
ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz
No
Will 40 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
-$0.17
ROI
-2.1%
Volume
$16.08
ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13?
+$3.58
+8.7%
$41.38
No
1mo ago
ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz
No
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
+$3.58
ROI
+8.7%
Volume
$41.38
ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz
Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13?
+$32.69
+513.5%
$6.37
Yes
1mo ago
ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz
Yes
Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
+$32.69
ROI
+513.5%
Volume
$6.37
ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz
Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13?
-$2.65
-100.0%
$2.65
No
1mo ago
ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz
No
Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
-$2.65
ROI
-100.0%
Volume
$2.65
ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13?
+$5.65
+15.1%
$37.44
No
1mo ago
ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz
No
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
+$5.65
ROI
+15.1%
Volume
$37.44
crude-oil-cl-hit
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in September?
-$25.55
-100.5%
$25.42
fee: $0.13
No
2mo ago
crude-oil-cl-hit
No
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in September?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
-$25.55
ROI
-100.5%
Volume
$25.42
fee: $0.13
crude-oil-cl-hit
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?
-$9.80
-103.2%
$9.50
fee: $0.31
No
2mo ago
crude-oil-cl-hit
No
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
-$9.80
ROI
-103.2%
Volume
$9.50
fee: $0.31
crude-oil-cl-hit
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September?
+$7.16
+31.6%
$22.62
fee: $0.22
Yes
2mo ago
crude-oil-cl-hit
Yes
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
+$7.16
ROI
+31.6%
Volume
$22.62
fee: $0.22
companies-with-1-ai
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
—
—
$154.74
fee: $0.35
Active
2mo ago
companies-with-1-ai
Active
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
Active 2mo ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$154.74
fee: $0.35
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?
+$11.15
+9.3%
$120.10
Yes
2mo ago
Yes
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
+$11.15
ROI
+9.3%
Volume
$120.10
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 5, 2026?
+$0.58
+6.1%
$9.40
fee: $0.02
Yes
2mo ago
Yes
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 5, 2026?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
+$0.58
ROI
+6.1%
Volume
$9.40
fee: $0.02
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1520?
+$5.15
+20.2%
$25.47
No
2mo ago
No
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1520?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
+$5.15
ROI
+20.2%
Volume
$25.47
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?
+$41.77
+388.2%
$10.76
fee: $0.14
No
2mo ago
No
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
+$41.77
ROI
+388.2%
Volume
$10.76
fee: $0.14
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1510?
+$12.16
+57.5%
$21.16
No
2mo ago
No
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1510?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
+$12.16
ROI
+57.5%
Volume
$21.16
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026?
-$106.31
-95.0%
$117.45
No
2mo ago
No
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
-$106.31
ROI
-95.0%
Volume
$117.45
Will Alina Habba be the next White House Press Secretary?
+$6.59
+12.3%
$53.45
fee: $0.02
No
2mo ago
No
Will Alina Habba be the next White House Press Secretary?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
+$6.59
ROI
+12.3%
Volume
$53.45
fee: $0.02
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?
+$4.10
+10.0%
$40.90
No
2mo ago
No
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
+$4.10
ROI
+10.0%
Volume
$40.90
us-iran-ceasefire-continues
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?
-$281.01
-100.0%
$281.01
No
2mo ago
us-iran-ceasefire-continues
No
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
-$281.01
ROI
-100.0%
Volume
$281.01
Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?
-$8.04
-100.0%
$8.04
No
2mo ago
No
Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
-$8.04
ROI
-100.0%
Volume
$8.04
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?
-$11.99
-73.3%
$20.75
No
2mo ago
No
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
-$11.99
ROI
-73.3%
Volume
$20.75
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?
-$21.67
-100.0%
$21.67
No
2mo ago
No
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?
Settled 8d ago
PnL
-$21.67
ROI
-100.0%
Volume
$21.67
Iran leadership change by November 30?
—
—
$95.55
Active
2mo ago
Active
Iran leadership change by November 30?
Active 2mo ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$95.55
P
Will a hurricane make landfall in New York by November 30, 2026?
—
—
$30.40
Active
2mo ago
P
Active
Will a hurricane make landfall in New York by November 30, 2026?
Active 2mo ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$30.40
Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?
—
—
$40.40
fee: $0.26
Active
2mo ago
Active
Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?
Active 2mo ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$40.40
fee: $0.26
P
monthly-spacex-launches
Will SpaceX have fewer than 13 launches in August 2026?
+$1.61
+8.1%
$19.79
No
2mo ago
P
monthly-spacex-launches
No
Will SpaceX have fewer than 13 launches in August 2026?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
+$1.61
ROI
+8.1%
Volume
$19.79
P
Will a hurricane make landfall in Florida by November 30, 2026?
-$3.65
-100.0%
$3.65
Yes
2mo ago
P
Yes
Will a hurricane make landfall in Florida by November 30, 2026?
Settled 28d ago
PnL
-$3.65
ROI
-100.0%
Volume
$3.65
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?
—
—
$132.37
Active
2mo ago
Active
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?
Active 2mo ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$132.37
crude-oil-cl-hit
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?
+$18.50
+27.9%
$66.38
fee: $0.10
No
2mo ago
crude-oil-cl-hit
No
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
+$18.50
ROI
+27.9%
Volume
$66.38
fee: $0.10
crude-oil-cl-hit
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?
+$297.75
+91.4%
$341.38
fee: $0.83
No
2mo ago
crude-oil-cl-hit
No
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
+$297.75
ROI
+91.4%
Volume
$341.38
fee: $0.83
crude-oil-cl-hit
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August?
+$12.72
+9.7%
$131.40
fee: $0.28
No
2mo ago
crude-oil-cl-hit
No
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
+$12.72
ROI
+9.7%
Volume
$131.40
fee: $0.28
P
Will Kai and Speed beat the gauntlet within 12 hours?
+$25.44
+41.2%
$109.31
fee: $1.29
Yes
2mo ago
P
Yes
Will Kai and Speed beat the gauntlet within 12 hours?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
+$25.44
ROI
+41.2%
Volume
$109.31
fee: $1.29
P
Will Kai and Speed beat the gauntlet within 14 hours?
+$1.10
+12.4%
$8.90
Yes
2mo ago
P
Yes
Will Kai and Speed beat the gauntlet within 14 hours?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
+$1.10
ROI
+12.4%
Volume
$8.90
P
Will Kai and Speed beat the gauntlet within 16 hours?
-$6.20
-100.0%
$6.20
Yes
2mo ago
P
Yes
Will Kai and Speed beat the gauntlet within 16 hours?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
-$6.20
ROI
-100.0%
Volume
$6.20
P
Will Kai and Speed beat the gauntlet within 10 hours?
+$2.56
+6.8%
$37.44
No
2mo ago
P
No
Will Kai and Speed beat the gauntlet within 10 hours?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
+$2.56
ROI
+6.8%
Volume
$37.44
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
—
—
$61.94
fee: $0.22
Active
2mo ago
Active
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
Active 2mo ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$61.94
fee: $0.22
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
—
—
$195.13
Active
2mo ago
Active
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
Active 2mo ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$195.13
P
Will a hurricane make landfall in Connecticut by November 30, 2026?
—
—
$9.59
Active
2mo ago
P
Active
Will a hurricane make landfall in Connecticut by November 30, 2026?
Active 2mo ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$9.59
crude-oil-cl-hit
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in August?
+$27.98
+23.6%
$118.52
fee: $0.60
No
2mo ago
crude-oil-cl-hit
No
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in August?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
+$27.98
ROI
+23.6%
Volume
$118.52
fee: $0.60
crude-oil-cl-hit
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in August?
-$9.56
-95.6%
$10.44
No
2mo ago
crude-oil-cl-hit
No
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in August?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
-$9.56
ROI
-95.6%
Volume
$10.44
Iran leadership change by December 31?
—
—
$100.80
Active
2mo ago
Active
Iran leadership change by December 31?
Active 2mo ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$100.80
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?
+$63.20
+39.5%
$160.16
No
2mo ago
No
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
+$63.20
ROI
+39.5%
Volume
$160.16
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?
+$4.20
+9.8%
$42.79
No
2mo ago
No
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?
Settled 8d ago
PnL
+$4.20
ROI
+9.8%
Volume
$42.79
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
—
—
$4.01
Active
2mo ago
Active
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Active 2mo ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$4.01
crude-oil-cl-hit
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?
+$44.56
+192.1%
$51.09
fee: $0.12
Yes
2mo ago
crude-oil-cl-hit
Yes
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
+$44.56
ROI
+192.1%
Volume
$51.09
fee: $0.12
P
ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?
+$0.95
+17.9%
$9.05
Yes
2mo ago
P
ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz
Yes
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
+$0.95
ROI
+17.9%
Volume
$9.05
Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary?
-$23.03
-101.5%
$22.69
fee: $0.33
No
2mo ago
No
Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
-$23.03
ROI
-101.5%
Volume
$22.69
fee: $0.33
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
+$95.97
+168.2%
$57.06
No
2mo ago
No
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
Settled 8d ago
PnL
+$95.97
ROI
+168.2%
Volume
$57.06
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
—
—
$20.83
Active
2mo ago
Active
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
Active 2mo ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$20.83
us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
-$82.24
-92.0%
$96.64
No
2mo ago
us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting
No
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
-$82.24
ROI
-92.0%
Volume
$96.64
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?
+$3.70
+5.3%
$70.21
No
2mo ago
No
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
+$3.70
ROI
+5.3%
Volume
$70.21
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1500?
+$6.30
+22.0%
$28.68
No
2mo ago
No
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1500?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
+$6.30
ROI
+22.0%
Volume
$28.68
which-countries-recognize-israel
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?
+$41.26
+75.5%
$187.02
Active
2mo ago
which-countries-recognize-israel
Active
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?
Active 2mo ago
PnL
+$41.26
ROI
+75.5%
Volume
$187.02
companies-with-1-ai
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
—
—
$51.45
fee: $0.05
Active
2mo ago
companies-with-1-ai
Active
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
Active 2mo ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$51.45
fee: $0.05
P
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 12?
+$138.03
+155.2%
$163.54
fee: $2.59
Yes
2mo ago
P
Yes
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 12?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
+$138.03
ROI
+155.2%
Volume
$163.54
fee: $2.59
P
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?
+$43.20
+59.2%
$104.86
fee: $0.16
Yes
2mo ago
P
Yes
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
+$43.20
ROI
+59.2%
Volume
$104.86
fee: $0.16
P
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?
+$231.34
+308.5%
$358.71
fee: $2.42
Yes
2mo ago
P
Yes
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
+$231.34
ROI
+308.5%
Volume
$358.71
fee: $2.42
P
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 14?
+$145.60
+283.1%
$51.42
Yes
2mo ago
P
Yes
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 14?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
+$145.60
ROI
+283.1%
Volume
$51.42
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?
+$57.63
+143.1%
$40.27
No
2mo ago
No
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
+$57.63
ROI
+143.1%
Volume
$40.27
hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
+$25.01
+31.7%
$78.99
No
2mo ago
hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal
No
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
Settled 1d ago
PnL
+$25.01
ROI
+31.7%
Volume
$78.99
hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
—
—
$148.73
Active
3mo ago
hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal
Active
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
Active 3mo ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$148.73
Will Kai or Speed die to a spider?
+$1.67
+8.7%
$19.18
Yes
3mo ago
Yes
Will Kai or Speed die to a spider?
Settled 3mo ago
PnL
+$1.67
ROI
+8.7%
Volume
$19.18
Will Kai or Speed die to a creeper?
+$0.96
+24.0%
$4.00
fee: $0.04
Yes
3mo ago
Yes
Will Kai or Speed die to a creeper?
Settled 3mo ago
PnL
+$0.96
ROI
+24.0%
Volume
$4.00
fee: $0.04
Will Kai or Speed die to a skeleton?
-$3.94
-101.1%
$3.90
fee: $0.04
No
3mo ago
No
Will Kai or Speed die to a skeleton?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
-$3.94
ROI
-101.1%
Volume
$3.90
fee: $0.04
Will Kai and Speed have between 30 and 49 total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?
-$22.50
-54.0%
$61.37
fee: $0.50
Yes
3mo ago
Yes
Will Kai and Speed have between 30 and 49 total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
-$22.50
ROI
-54.0%
Volume
$61.37
fee: $0.50
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?
+$25.77
+113.8%
$22.65
fee: $0.32
No
3mo ago
No
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
+$25.77
ROI
+113.8%
Volume
$22.65
fee: $0.32
P
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
-$15.98
-100.0%
$15.98
Yes
3mo ago
P
Yes
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
-$15.98
ROI
-100.0%
Volume
$15.98
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31?
-$3.05
-100.0%
$3.05
No
3mo ago
No
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
-$3.05
ROI
-100.0%
Volume
$3.05
P
ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz
Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?
+$300.71
+238.8%
$328.46
Yes
3mo ago
P
ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz
Yes
Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?
Settled 3mo ago
PnL
+$300.71
ROI
+238.8%
Volume
$328.46
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?
+$1.20K
+1136.3%
$1.37K
Yes
3mo ago
Yes
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?
Settled 3mo ago
PnL
+$1.20K
ROI
+1136.3%
Volume
$1.37K
P
US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?
+$11.25
+16.4%
$148.81
No
3mo ago
P
No
US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?
Settled 3mo ago
PnL
+$11.25
ROI
+16.4%
Volume
$148.81
hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
+$129.54
+69.6%
$501.59
No
3mo ago
hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal
No
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Settled 3mo ago
PnL
+$129.54
ROI
+69.6%
Volume
$501.59
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?
+$6.19
+7.5%
$171.25
Yes
3mo ago
Yes
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?
Settled 3mo ago
PnL
+$6.19
ROI
+7.5%
Volume
$171.25
P
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?
+$61.24
+33.4%
$434.86
Yes
3mo ago
P
Yes
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?
Settled 3mo ago
PnL
+$61.24
ROI
+33.4%
Volume
$434.86
P
hormuz-transits-neg
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?
+$20.27
+15.6%
$279.98
No
3mo ago
P
hormuz-transits-neg
No
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?
Settled 3mo ago
PnL
+$20.27
ROI
+15.6%
Volume
$279.98
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?
+$13.60
+22.1%
$136.76
No
3mo ago
No
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
+$13.60
ROI
+22.1%
Volume
$136.76
P
Will Trump say "Hell" 7+ times during Michigan remarks?
-$3.55
-100.0%
$3.55
No
3mo ago
P
No
Will Trump say "Hell" 7+ times during Michigan remarks?
Settled 3mo ago
PnL
-$3.55
ROI
-100.0%
Volume
$3.55
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
-$2.56
-4.6%
$109.19
No
3mo ago
No
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
-$2.56
ROI
-4.6%
Volume
$109.19
260 Markets
•
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