P
PolyPnL
Leaderboard
Mempool
A live demo site
powered by
PolyEdge Engine
Tier 0
Weighted Vol:
$72.80
Ogre-Magi
Ogre-Magi
View on Polymarket
Save
Created
January 7, 2026
Active
September 21, 2026
Balance
$2.24K
Incoming
+$1.89K
Rewards
+$41.48
Outgoing
-$3.60K
PnL Over Time
Cumulative PnL
-$297.26
1D
3D
7D
30D
All
Aug 26
Sep 3
Sep 10
Sep 18
Sep 25
Top Categories
Last 30 Days
Finance
+$7.16
WR: 33.3%
(1/3)
ROI: +31.6%
Tech
-$79.62
WR: 50.0%
(5/10)
ROI: -6.8%
Geopolitics
-$228.89
WR: 36.4%
(4/11)
ROI: -50.0%
Politics
-$281.01
WR: 0.0%
(0/3)
ROI: -100.0%
Trading Style
Last 30 Days
Maker Volume
$1.88K
79.8%
Taker Volume
$474.06
20.2%
Taker Ratio
20%
Performance Snapshot
24 Hours
Net PnL
+$0.00
ROI
0.0%
Win Rate
0.0%
Volume
$0.00
Fee
$0.00
0 Wins in 0 Markets
3 Days
Net PnL
+$0.00
ROI
0.0%
Win Rate
0.0%
Volume
$0.00
Fee
$0.00
0 Wins in 0 Markets
7 Days
Net PnL
-$13.35
ROI
-102.1%
Win Rate
0.0%
Volume
$46.26
Fee
$0.27
0 Wins in 2 Markets
30 Days
Net PnL
-$297.26
ROI
-17.6%
Win Rate
42.3%
Volume
$2.35K
Fee
$2.75
11 Wins in 26 Markets
Recent Markets
| total 245
Market
PnL
ROI
Volume
Status
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?
—
—
$33.18
Active
4d ago
Active
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?
Active 4d ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$33.18
claude-opus-released
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 24, 2026?
-$13.35
-102.1%
$13.08
fee: $0.27
Yes
5d ago
claude-opus-released
Yes
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 24, 2026?
Settled 3d ago
PnL
-$13.35
ROI
-102.1%
Volume
$13.08
fee: $0.27
max-chatbot-arena
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?
-$30.77
-3.6%
$1.17K
fee: $0.93
Yes
9d ago
max-chatbot-arena
Yes
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?
Settled 7d ago
PnL
-$30.77
ROI
-3.6%
Volume
$1.17K
fee: $0.93
ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13?
+$25.00
+39.1%
$63.96
No
10d ago
ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz
No
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13?
Settled 10d ago
PnL
+$25.00
ROI
+39.1%
Volume
$63.96
ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz
Will 40 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13?
-$0.17
-2.1%
$16.08
No
10d ago
ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz
No
Will 40 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13?
Settled 10d ago
PnL
-$0.17
ROI
-2.1%
Volume
$16.08
ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13?
+$3.58
+8.7%
$41.38
No
11d ago
ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz
No
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13?
Settled 10d ago
PnL
+$3.58
ROI
+8.7%
Volume
$41.38
ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz
Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13?
+$32.69
+513.5%
$6.37
Yes
11d ago
ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz
Yes
Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13?
Settled 10d ago
PnL
+$32.69
ROI
+513.5%
Volume
$6.37
ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz
Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13?
-$2.65
-100.0%
$2.65
No
13d ago
ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz
No
Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13?
Settled 10d ago
PnL
-$2.65
ROI
-100.0%
Volume
$2.65
ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13?
+$5.65
+15.1%
$37.44
No
13d ago
ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz
No
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13?
Settled 10d ago
PnL
+$5.65
ROI
+15.1%
Volume
$37.44
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?
—
—
$26.79
fee: $0.35
Active
16d ago
Active
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?
Active 16d ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$26.79
fee: $0.35
crude-oil-cl-hit
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in September?
—
—
$25.42
fee: $0.13
Active
16d ago
crude-oil-cl-hit
Active
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in September?
Active 16d ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$25.42
fee: $0.13
crude-oil-cl-hit
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?
—
—
$9.50
fee: $0.31
Active
16d ago
crude-oil-cl-hit
Active
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?
Active 16d ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$9.50
fee: $0.31
crude-oil-cl-hit
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September?
+$7.16
+31.6%
$22.62
fee: $0.22
Yes
16d ago
crude-oil-cl-hit
Yes
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September?
Settled 2d ago
PnL
+$7.16
ROI
+31.6%
Volume
$22.62
fee: $0.22
companies-with-1-ai
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
—
—
$154.74
fee: $0.35
Active
17d ago
companies-with-1-ai
Active
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
Active 17d ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$154.74
fee: $0.35
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?
+$11.15
+9.3%
$120.10
Yes
21d ago
Yes
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?
Settled 20d ago
PnL
+$11.15
ROI
+9.3%
Volume
$120.10
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 5, 2026?
+$0.58
+6.1%
$9.40
fee: $0.02
Yes
21d ago
Yes
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 5, 2026?
Settled 20d ago
PnL
+$0.58
ROI
+6.1%
Volume
$9.40
fee: $0.02
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1520?
+$5.15
+20.2%
$25.47
No
22d ago
No
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1520?
Settled 13d ago
PnL
+$5.15
ROI
+20.2%
Volume
$25.47
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?
+$41.77
+388.2%
$10.76
fee: $0.14
No
22d ago
No
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?
Settled 13d ago
PnL
+$41.77
ROI
+388.2%
Volume
$10.76
fee: $0.14
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1510?
+$12.16
+57.5%
$21.16
No
22d ago
No
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1510?
Settled 13d ago
PnL
+$12.16
ROI
+57.5%
Volume
$21.16
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026?
-$106.31
-95.0%
$117.45
No
22d ago
No
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026?
Settled 21d ago
PnL
-$106.31
ROI
-95.0%
Volume
$117.45
Will Alina Habba be the next White House Press Secretary?
—
—
$53.45
fee: $0.02
Active
24d ago
Active
Will Alina Habba be the next White House Press Secretary?
Active 24d ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$53.45
fee: $0.02
P
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?
+$4.10
+10.0%
$40.90
No
25d ago
P
No
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?
Settled 24d ago
PnL
+$4.10
ROI
+10.0%
Volume
$40.90
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?
-$281.01
-100.0%
$281.01
No
28d ago
No
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?
Settled 25d ago
PnL
-$281.01
ROI
-100.0%
Volume
$281.01
Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?
—
—
$8.04
Active
28d ago
Active
Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?
Active 28d ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$8.04
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?
-$11.99
-73.3%
$20.75
No
29d ago
No
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?
Settled 24d ago
PnL
-$11.99
ROI
-73.3%
Volume
$20.75
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?
—
—
$21.67
Active
29d ago
Active
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?
Active 29d ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$21.67
Iran leadership change by November 30?
—
—
$95.55
Active
1mo ago
Active
Iran leadership change by November 30?
Active 1mo ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$95.55
P
Will a hurricane make landfall in New York by November 30, 2026?
—
—
$30.40
Active
1mo ago
P
Active
Will a hurricane make landfall in New York by November 30, 2026?
Active 1mo ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$30.40
Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?
—
—
$40.40
fee: $0.26
Active
1mo ago
Active
Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?
Active 1mo ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$40.40
fee: $0.26
P
monthly-spacex-launches
Will SpaceX have fewer than 13 launches in August 2026?
+$1.61
+8.1%
$19.79
No
1mo ago
P
monthly-spacex-launches
No
Will SpaceX have fewer than 13 launches in August 2026?
Settled 25d ago
PnL
+$1.61
ROI
+8.1%
Volume
$19.79
P
Will a hurricane make landfall in Florida by November 30, 2026?
—
—
$3.65
Active
1mo ago
P
Active
Will a hurricane make landfall in Florida by November 30, 2026?
Active 1mo ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$3.65
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?
—
—
$132.37
Active
1mo ago
Active
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?
Active 1mo ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$132.37
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?
+$18.50
+27.9%
$66.38
fee: $0.10
No
1mo ago
No
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?
Settled 24d ago
PnL
+$18.50
ROI
+27.9%
Volume
$66.38
fee: $0.10
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?
+$297.75
+91.4%
$341.38
fee: $0.83
No
1mo ago
No
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?
Settled 24d ago
PnL
+$297.75
ROI
+91.4%
Volume
$341.38
fee: $0.83
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August?
+$12.72
+9.7%
$131.40
fee: $0.28
No
1mo ago
No
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August?
Settled 24d ago
PnL
+$12.72
ROI
+9.7%
Volume
$131.40
fee: $0.28
P
Will Kai and Speed beat the gauntlet within 12 hours?
+$25.44
+41.2%
$109.31
fee: $1.29
Yes
1mo ago
P
Yes
Will Kai and Speed beat the gauntlet within 12 hours?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
+$25.44
ROI
+41.2%
Volume
$109.31
fee: $1.29
P
Will Kai and Speed beat the gauntlet within 14 hours?
+$1.10
+12.4%
$8.90
Yes
1mo ago
P
Yes
Will Kai and Speed beat the gauntlet within 14 hours?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
+$1.10
ROI
+12.4%
Volume
$8.90
P
Will Kai and Speed beat the gauntlet within 16 hours?
-$6.20
-100.0%
$6.20
Yes
1mo ago
P
Yes
Will Kai and Speed beat the gauntlet within 16 hours?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
-$6.20
ROI
-100.0%
Volume
$6.20
P
Will Kai and Speed beat the gauntlet within 10 hours?
+$2.56
+6.8%
$37.44
No
1mo ago
P
No
Will Kai and Speed beat the gauntlet within 10 hours?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
+$2.56
ROI
+6.8%
Volume
$37.44
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
—
—
$61.94
fee: $0.22
Active
1mo ago
Active
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
Active 1mo ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$61.94
fee: $0.22
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
—
—
$195.13
Active
1mo ago
Active
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
Active 1mo ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$195.13
P
Will a hurricane make landfall in Connecticut by November 30, 2026?
—
—
$9.59
Active
1mo ago
P
Active
Will a hurricane make landfall in Connecticut by November 30, 2026?
Active 1mo ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$9.59
crude-oil-cl-hit
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in August?
+$27.98
+23.6%
$118.52
fee: $0.60
No
1mo ago
crude-oil-cl-hit
No
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in August?
Settled 24d ago
PnL
+$27.98
ROI
+23.6%
Volume
$118.52
fee: $0.60
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in August?
-$9.56
-95.6%
$10.44
No
1mo ago
No
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in August?
Settled 24d ago
PnL
-$9.56
ROI
-95.6%
Volume
$10.44
Iran leadership change by December 31?
—
—
$100.80
Active
1mo ago
Active
Iran leadership change by December 31?
Active 1mo ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$100.80
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?
+$63.20
+39.5%
$160.16
No
1mo ago
No
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?
Settled 24d ago
PnL
+$63.20
ROI
+39.5%
Volume
$160.16
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?
—
—
$42.79
Active
1mo ago
Active
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?
Active 1mo ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$42.79
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
—
—
$4.01
Active
1mo ago
Active
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Active 1mo ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$4.01
crude-oil-cl-hit
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?
+$44.56
+192.1%
$51.09
fee: $0.12
Yes
1mo ago
crude-oil-cl-hit
Yes
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
+$44.56
ROI
+192.1%
Volume
$51.09
fee: $0.12
P
ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?
+$0.95
+17.9%
$9.05
Yes
1mo ago
P
ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz
Yes
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
+$0.95
ROI
+17.9%
Volume
$9.05
Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary?
—
—
$22.69
fee: $0.33
Active
1mo ago
Active
Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary?
Active 1mo ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$22.69
fee: $0.33
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
—
—
$57.06
Active
1mo ago
Active
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
Active 1mo ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$57.06
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
—
—
$20.83
Active
1mo ago
Active
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
Active 1mo ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$20.83
us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
-$82.24
-92.0%
$96.64
No
1mo ago
us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting
No
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
Settled 24d ago
PnL
-$82.24
ROI
-92.0%
Volume
$96.64
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?
+$3.70
+5.3%
$70.21
No
1mo ago
No
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
+$3.70
ROI
+5.3%
Volume
$70.21
hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
+$188.70
+22.6%
$2.77K
Active
1mo ago
hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal
Active
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Active 1mo ago
PnL
+$188.70
ROI
+22.6%
Volume
$2.77K
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1500?
+$6.30
+22.0%
$28.68
No
1mo ago
No
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1500?
Settled 13d ago
PnL
+$6.30
ROI
+22.0%
Volume
$28.68
which-countries-recognize-israel
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?
+$41.26
+75.5%
$187.02
Active
1mo ago
which-countries-recognize-israel
Active
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?
Active 1mo ago
PnL
+$41.26
ROI
+75.5%
Volume
$187.02
companies-with-1-ai
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
—
—
$51.45
fee: $0.05
Active
1mo ago
companies-with-1-ai
Active
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
Active 1mo ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$51.45
fee: $0.05
P
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 12?
+$138.03
+155.2%
$163.54
fee: $2.59
Yes
1mo ago
P
Yes
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 12?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
+$138.03
ROI
+155.2%
Volume
$163.54
fee: $2.59
P
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?
+$43.20
+59.2%
$104.86
fee: $0.16
Yes
1mo ago
P
Yes
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
+$43.20
ROI
+59.2%
Volume
$104.86
fee: $0.16
P
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?
+$231.34
+308.5%
$358.71
fee: $2.42
Yes
1mo ago
P
Yes
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
+$231.34
ROI
+308.5%
Volume
$358.71
fee: $2.42
P
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 14?
+$145.60
+283.1%
$51.42
Yes
1mo ago
P
Yes
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 14?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
+$145.60
ROI
+283.1%
Volume
$51.42
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?
—
—
$40.27
Active
1mo ago
Active
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?
Active 1mo ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$40.27
hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
—
—
$78.99
Active
1mo ago
hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal
Active
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
Active 1mo ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$78.99
hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
—
—
$148.73
Active
1mo ago
hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal
Active
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
Active 1mo ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$148.73
Will Kai or Speed die to a spider?
+$1.67
+8.7%
$19.18
Yes
1mo ago
Yes
Will Kai or Speed die to a spider?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
+$1.67
ROI
+8.7%
Volume
$19.18
Will Kai or Speed die to a creeper?
+$0.96
+24.0%
$4.00
fee: $0.04
Yes
1mo ago
Yes
Will Kai or Speed die to a creeper?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
+$0.96
ROI
+24.0%
Volume
$4.00
fee: $0.04
Will Kai or Speed die to a skeleton?
-$3.94
-101.1%
$3.90
fee: $0.04
No
1mo ago
No
Will Kai or Speed die to a skeleton?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
-$3.94
ROI
-101.1%
Volume
$3.90
fee: $0.04
Will Kai and Speed have between 30 and 49 total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?
-$22.50
-54.0%
$61.37
fee: $0.50
Yes
1mo ago
Yes
Will Kai and Speed have between 30 and 49 total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
-$22.50
ROI
-54.0%
Volume
$61.37
fee: $0.50
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?
+$25.77
+113.8%
$22.65
fee: $0.32
No
1mo ago
No
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?
Settled 24d ago
PnL
+$25.77
ROI
+113.8%
Volume
$22.65
fee: $0.32
P
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
-$15.98
-100.0%
$15.98
Yes
1mo ago
P
Yes
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
-$15.98
ROI
-100.0%
Volume
$15.98
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31?
-$3.05
-100.0%
$3.05
No
1mo ago
No
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31?
Settled 16d ago
PnL
-$3.05
ROI
-100.0%
Volume
$3.05
P
ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz
Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?
+$300.71
+238.8%
$328.46
Yes
1mo ago
P
ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz
Yes
Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
+$300.71
ROI
+238.8%
Volume
$328.46
P
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?
+$1.20K
+1136.3%
$1.37K
Yes
1mo ago
P
Yes
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
+$1.20K
ROI
+1136.3%
Volume
$1.37K
P
US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?
+$11.25
+16.4%
$148.81
No
1mo ago
P
No
US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
+$11.25
ROI
+16.4%
Volume
$148.81
hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
+$129.54
+69.6%
$501.59
No
1mo ago
hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal
No
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
+$129.54
ROI
+69.6%
Volume
$501.59
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?
+$6.19
+7.5%
$171.25
Yes
1mo ago
Yes
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
+$6.19
ROI
+7.5%
Volume
$171.25
P
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?
+$61.24
+33.4%
$434.86
Yes
1mo ago
P
Yes
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
+$61.24
ROI
+33.4%
Volume
$434.86
P
hormuz-transits-neg
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?
+$20.27
+15.6%
$279.98
No
1mo ago
P
hormuz-transits-neg
No
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
+$20.27
ROI
+15.6%
Volume
$279.98
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?
+$13.60
+22.1%
$136.76
No
1mo ago
No
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?
Settled 24d ago
PnL
+$13.60
ROI
+22.1%
Volume
$136.76
P
Will Trump say "Hell" 7+ times during Michigan remarks?
-$3.55
-100.0%
$3.55
No
2mo ago
P
No
Will Trump say "Hell" 7+ times during Michigan remarks?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
-$3.55
ROI
-100.0%
Volume
$3.55
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
-$2.44
-4.4%
$109.19
Active
2mo ago
Active
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
Active 2mo ago
PnL
-$2.44
ROI
-4.4%
Volume
$109.19
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?
+$10.23
+29.7%
$76.65
No
2mo ago
No
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
+$10.23
ROI
+29.7%
Volume
$76.65
P
hormuz-transits-neg
Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?
+$133.33
+308.4%
$184.08
Yes
2mo ago
P
hormuz-transits-neg
Yes
Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
+$133.33
ROI
+308.4%
Volume
$184.08
claude-opus-released
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 23, 2026?
+$22.85
+35.6%
$64.20
No
2mo ago
claude-opus-released
No
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 23, 2026?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
+$22.85
ROI
+35.6%
Volume
$64.20
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
-$89.13
-57.2%
$222.43
No
2mo ago
No
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
-$89.13
ROI
-57.2%
Volume
$222.43
P
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?
+$31.99
+177.8%
$17.99
Yes
2mo ago
P
Yes
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
+$31.99
ROI
+177.8%
Volume
$17.99
monthly-spacex-launches
Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026?
—
—
$7.00
Active
2mo ago
monthly-spacex-launches
Active
Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026?
Active 2mo ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$7.00
best-ai-company
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
-$4.71
-60.1%
$11.02
fee: $0.06
No
2mo ago
best-ai-company
No
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
-$4.71
ROI
-60.1%
Volume
$11.02
fee: $0.06
enrichment-of-uranium
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
—
—
$7.78
Active
2mo ago
enrichment-of-uranium
Active
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
Active 2mo ago
PnL
—
ROI
—
Volume
$7.78
chinese-ai-1
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?
+$29.61
+46.7%
$63.36
fee: $0.38
Yes
2mo ago
chinese-ai-1
Yes
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
+$29.61
ROI
+46.7%
Volume
$63.36
fee: $0.38
us-to-invade-iran
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
-$26.91
-24.1%
$934.46
Active
2mo ago
us-to-invade-iran
Active
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Active 2mo ago
PnL
-$26.91
ROI
-24.1%
Volume
$934.46
Iran leadership change by July 31?
+$2.16
+5.7%
$37.84
No
2mo ago
No
Iran leadership change by July 31?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
+$2.16
ROI
+5.7%
Volume
$37.84
us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
-$20.99
-100.0%
$20.99
No
2mo ago
us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting
No
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
Settled 1mo ago
PnL
-$20.99
ROI
-100.0%
Volume
$20.99
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?
+$1.30
+16.7%
$8.70
No
2mo ago
No
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
+$1.30
ROI
+16.7%
Volume
$8.70
spacex-starship-flight-test
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?
+$18.15
+59.8%
$74.11
Yes
2mo ago
spacex-starship-flight-test
Yes
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
+$18.15
ROI
+59.8%
Volume
$74.11
spacex-starship-flight-test
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 17?
-$3.74
-63.9%
$7.96
No
2mo ago
spacex-starship-flight-test
No
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 17?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
-$3.74
ROI
-63.9%
Volume
$7.96
P
Will Trump say "Nuclear" 15+ times during Speech to the Nation?
-$0.20
-100.0%
$0.20
No
2mo ago
P
No
Will Trump say "Nuclear" 15+ times during Speech to the Nation?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
-$0.20
ROI
-100.0%
Volume
$0.20
P
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Speech to the Nation?
+$1.71
+16.4%
$21.53
No
2mo ago
P
No
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Speech to the Nation?
Settled 2mo ago
PnL
+$1.71
ROI
+16.4%
Volume
$21.53
245 Markets
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